Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monaco entertain Lille on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Stade Louis II (Monaco), with François Letexier the man in the middle. Monaco (49%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Monaco vs Lille: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.04 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Market average | 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.91 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.74 | 54.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.11 | 45.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.74 | 34.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 25/10/26, 13:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Monaco 1–1 Lille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monaco 7th (15 points), Lille 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Monaco 4W 2D 1L (10:6), Lille 4W 2D 1L (10:5).
- H2H: 30 matches: Monaco 11W 9D 10L, goals 39–33.
- Absences: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Monaco vs Lille: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Monaco vs Lille: injuries, suspensions, absences
Monaco
- S. Idumbogroin injury · will miss the match
- E. Diermuscle injury · doubtful
Lille
- H. Igamaneknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Santosknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Uedafoot injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Monaco vs Lille: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 | Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 8 | 3-3-2 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 14 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Monaco
Home and away
Monaco vs Lille: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Monaco: 7th, 15 points from 9 matches (4W 3D 2L). Lille: 2nd, 18 points (5W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Monaco 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded, Lille 1.4 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Monaco: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–6; Lille: 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Head to head. Head to head over 30 meetings: Monaco 11 wins, Lille 10 wins, plus 9 draws; goals 39–33.
What to expect
We make Monaco the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.3%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 58% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 30; Monaco 11 wins, 9 draws, Lille 10 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.4 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Monaco 10–6, Lille 10–5.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Not available: Monaco 2, Lille 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 58%, odds up to 1.70). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Not available for Lille: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Monaco vs Lille: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
MonacoLDLDWLilleWDDWLMonaco vs Lille: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Monaco vs Lille: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Monaco vs Lille?
On the result, our pick is Monaco to win (2.04); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.47). Prefer less risk? Go for Monaco or draw (1X).
Who will win Monaco vs Lille?
As we see it: Monaco to win 49%, the draw 27%, Lille to win 24%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
25 October 2026, 14:00, at Stade Louis II, Monaco. Referee: François Letexier.
Who will be missing?
Monaco: S. Idumbo, E. Dier. Lille: H. Igamane, T. Santos, A. Ueda. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.81), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 58% (odds 1.70).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (9.6%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.