Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Marseille v Toulouse takes place on 1 November 2026 · 19:45 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille); Hakim Ben el Hadj will referee. We back Marseille (50%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Marseille vs Toulouse: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.97 | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| Market average | 1.92 | 3.96 | 3.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.87 | 3.58 | 3.19 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.58 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 2.23 | 42.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.44 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.5% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 1/11/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Toulouse 11th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 4W 0D 4L (18:13), Toulouse 2W 4D 2L (12:11).
- H2H: 32 matches: Marseille 18W 12D 2L, goals 62–29.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Marseille vs Toulouse: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Marseille vs Toulouse: injuries, suspensions, absences
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Toulouse
- R. Messalithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Nifloreknee injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Marseille vs Toulouse: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 8 | 3-3-2 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 14 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Toulouse: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Marseille: 6th, 15 points from 9 matches (5W 0D 4L). Toulouse: 11th, 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Marseille 2.3 scored and 1.6 conceded, Toulouse 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 4W 0D 4L, goals 18–13; Toulouse: 2W 4D 2L, goals 12–11.
- Head to head. Head to head over 32 meetings: Marseille 18 wins, Toulouse 2 wins, plus 12 draws; goals 62–29.
What to expect
We make Marseille the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (9.9%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.50), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 65% and over 2.5 goals is 64%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 32; Marseille 18 wins, 12 draws, Toulouse 2 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.8 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Marseille 18–13, Toulouse 12–11.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Not available: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 65%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Marseille: D. Cornelius. Not available for Toulouse: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Toulouse: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLToulouseLDWDWMarseille vs Toulouse: head to head
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Marseille vs Toulouse: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Marseille vs Toulouse?
On the result, our pick is Marseille to win (1.97); on goals, Both teams to score (1.50). Prefer less risk? Go for Marseille or draw (1X).
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
As we see it: Marseille to win 50%, the draw 24%, Toulouse to win 26%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
1 November 2026, 19:45, at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Hakim Ben el Hadj.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Toulouse: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 64% chance (odds 1.52), against 36% for under 2.5 (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 65% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (9.9%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (7.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.