Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sturm Graz entertain Marseille on 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau (Graz), with Nenad Minaković the man in the middle. We do not see a favourite here. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Market average | 3.07 | 3.54 | 2.21 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.09 | 2.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.42 | 39.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.34 | 40.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.59 | 36.1% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 22/10/26, 16:29. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sturm Graz 19th (4 points), Marseille 34th (0 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Sturm Graz 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0.
- Absences: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: injuries, suspensions, absences
Sturm Graz
- No reported absences
Marseille
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Sturm Graz
Home and away
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Sturm Graz: 19th, 4 points from 3 matches (1W 1D 1L). Marseille: 34th, 0 points (0W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. Head to head over 1 meetings: Sturm Graz 1 win, Marseille 0 wins, plus 0 draws; goals 1–0.
What to expect
We make Marseille the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.7%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Sturm Graz look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the away side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.50), with a probability of 64% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 64% and over 2.5 goals is 61%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 1; Sturm Graz 1 win, 0 draws, Marseille 0 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 1.0 per match.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Not available: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 64%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Sturm Graz: no absences. Not available for Marseille: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: head to head
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Sturm Graz vs Marseille: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
On the result, our pick is Draw or Marseille (X2) (1.42); on goals, Both teams to score (1.50). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Marseille (X2).
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
As we see it: Sturm Graz to win 31%, the draw 27%, Marseille to win 43%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
22 October 2026, 17:45, at Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz. Referee: Nenad Minaković.
Who will be missing?
Sturm Graz: no absences. Marseille: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 61% chance (odds 1.60), against 39% for under 2.5 (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 64% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.7%), 1–2 (9.1%), 0–1 (7.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.