Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Marseille and Le Havre meet on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille), under referee Clément Turpin. Marseille (65%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Marseille vs Le Havre: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.53 | 5.08 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.48 | 4.88 | 6.08 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.49 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.69 | 2.59 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.34 | 2.24 | 42.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.6% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 25/10/26, 13:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 2–1 Le Havre, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Le Havre 18th (2 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 3W 0D 4L (14:10), Le Havre 0W 2D 5L (5:11).
- H2H: 8 matches: Marseille 8W 0D 0L, goals 27–9.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Marseille vs Le Havre: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Marseille vs Le Havre: injuries, suspensions, absences
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Le Havre
- E. Jelertthigh injury · will miss the match
- F. MambimbiAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- L. Mpasi-NzauAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- T. Pembelemuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Toureknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Zagadouknee injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Havre: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 8 | 3-3-2 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 14 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Marseille vs Le Havre: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Marseille: 6th, 15 points from 9 matches (5W 0D 4L). Le Havre: 18th, 2 points (0W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Marseille 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, Le Havre 0.7 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 3W 0D 4L, goals 14–10; Le Havre: 0W 2D 5L, goals 5–11.
- Head to head. Head to head over 8 meetings: Marseille 8 wins, Le Havre 0 wins, plus 0 draws; goals 27–9.
What to expect
We make Marseille the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), with a probability of 64% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 58% and over 2.5 goals is 64%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 8; Marseille 8 wins, 0 draws, Le Havre 0 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 4.5 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Marseille 14–10, Le Havre 5–11.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 64%.
- Not available: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 58%, odds up to 1.62). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Marseille: D. Cornelius. Not available for Le Havre: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Havre: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLLe HavreLLLLLMarseille vs Le Havre: head to head
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Marseille vs Le Havre: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Marseille vs Le Havre?
On the result, our pick is Marseille to win (1.53); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.52). Prefer less risk? Go for Marseille or draw (1X).
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
As we see it: Marseille to win 65%, the draw 20%, Le Havre to win 16%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
25 October 2026, 16:15, at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Clément Turpin.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Le Havre: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 64% chance (odds 1.52), against 36% for under 2.5 (odds 2.69).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (9.3%), 1–1 (8.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.