Bet with MINO CASINO →Derby v Bolton takes place on 6 November 2026 · 20:00 at Pride Park (Derby). We call it a level game. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Derby vs Bolton: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.23 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Market average | 2.20 | 3.53 | 3.01 |
| Lowest odds | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Megapari | 2.23 | 3.55 | 2.94 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.21 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.06 | 45.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.82 | 2.72 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.23 | 41.6% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 2/11/26, 02:30. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 7.1%.
Megapari: prices for this match
Partner odds, refreshed 2/11/26, 12:56. A click takes you to this match at Megapari. 18+
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Bolton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Bolton 19th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Derby 1W 4D 8L (11:25), Bolton 4W 2D 7L (18:26).
- H2H: 16 matches: Derby 8W 5D 3L, goals 26–12.
- Absences: Derby 0, Bolton 0.
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Derby vs Bolton: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derby vs Bolton: injuries, suspensions, absences
Derby
- No reported absences
Bolton
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Derby vs Bolton: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Bolton: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Derby: 23rd, 7 points from 13 matches (1W 4D 8L). Bolton: 19th, 14 points (4W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Derby 0.8 scored and 1.9 conceded, Bolton 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Derby: 1W 4D 8L, goals 11–25; Bolton: 4W 2D 7L, goals 18–26.
- Head to head. Head to head over 16 meetings: Derby 8 wins, Bolton 3 wins, plus 5 draws; goals 26–12.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.7%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Bolton look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the home side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 58% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 16; Derby 8 wins, 5 draws, Bolton 3 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.4 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Derby 11–25, Bolton 18–26.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Not available: Derby 0, Bolton 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 58%, odds up to 1.62). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Derby: no absences. Not available for Bolton: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Derby vs Bolton: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
DerbyLDLLDBoltonLLDWLDerby vs Bolton: head to head
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Derby vs Bolton: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Derby vs Bolton?
On the result, our pick is Derby or draw (1X) (1.39); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.45). Prefer less risk? Go for Derby or draw (1X).
Who will win Derby vs Bolton?
As we see it: Derby to win 42%, the draw 26%, Bolton to win 31%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
6 November 2026, 20:00, at Pride Park, Derby.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Bolton: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.75), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 58% (odds 1.62).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (9.0%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.