Bet with MINO CASINO →Derby entertain Norwich on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), with Sam Allison the man in the middle. Norwich (46%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Derby vs Norwich: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.50 | 3.81 | 2.11 |
| Market average | 3.31 | 3.64 | 2.07 |
| Lowest odds | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Megapari | 3.26 | 3.58 | 2.07 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 1.69 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.67 | 34.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.26 | 41.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 2/11/26, 08:15. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.2%.
Megapari: prices for this match
Partner odds, refreshed 2/11/26, 12:56. A click takes you to this match at Megapari. 18+
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Norwich, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Norwich 15th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: Derby 1W 4D 8L (11:25), Norwich 5W 0D 8L (23:24).
- H2H: 14 matches: Derby 5W 5D 4L, goals 18–19.
- Absences: Derby 8, Norwich 5.
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Derby vs Norwich: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derby vs Norwich: injuries, suspensions, absences
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
Norwich
- A. Ahmedknee injury · will miss the match
- P. A. Dialloinjury · will miss the match
- G. Forsythabsence · will miss the match
- M. Toureshoulder injury · will miss the match
- P. Mattssonabsence · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Derby vs Norwich: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Norwich: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Derby: 23rd, 7 points from 13 matches (1W 4D 8L). Norwich: 15th, 15 points (5W 0D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Derby 0.8 scored and 1.9 conceded, Norwich 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Derby: 1W 4D 8L, goals 11–25; Norwich: 5W 0D 8L, goals 23–24.
- Head to head. Head to head over 14 meetings: Derby 5 wins, Norwich 4 wins, plus 5 draws; goals 18–19.
What to expect
We make Norwich the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.3%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 59% and over 2.5 goals is 56%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 14; Derby 5 wins, 5 draws, Norwich 4 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.6 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Derby 11–25, Norwich 23–24.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 56%.
- Not available: Derby 8, Norwich 5.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 59%, odds up to 1.62). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Not available for Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Derby vs Norwich: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
DerbyLDLLDNorwichWWLLLDerby vs Norwich: head to head
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Derby vs Norwich: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Derby vs Norwich?
On the result, our pick is Norwich to win (2.11); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.47). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Norwich (X2).
Who will win Derby vs Norwich?
As we see it: Derby to win 29%, the draw 26%, Norwich to win 46%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
3 November 2026, 19:45, at Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Sam Allison.
Who will be missing?
Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Norwich: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 56% chance (odds 1.75), against 44% for under 2.5 (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (9.1%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.