Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd and Derby meet on 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Bramall Lane (Sheffield), under referee Stephen Martin, England. Sheffield Utd (53%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.82 | 4.01 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.82 | 4.33 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 76.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 1.74 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.05 | 45.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.81 | 33.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.69 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.12 | 2.07 | 44.9% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 24/10/26, 10:03. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sheffield Utd 10th (19 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Sheffield Utd 4W 3D 4L (15:14), Derby 1W 3D 7L (9:20).
- H2H: 14 matches: Sheffield Utd 9W 2D 3L, goals 22–14.
- Absences: Sheffield Utd 2, Derby 11.
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: injuries, suspensions, absences
Sheffield Utd
- M. Dohertyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Shackletonabsence · will miss the match
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Widell Zetterstromknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Johnstonnot in the squad · doubtful
- A. Mowattabsence · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sheffield Utd
Home and away
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Sheffield Utd: 10th, 19 points from 13 matches (5W 4D 4L). Derby: 23rd, 7 points (1W 4D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Sheffield Utd 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded, Derby 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sheffield Utd: 4W 3D 4L, goals 15–14; Derby: 1W 3D 7L, goals 9–20.
- Head to head. Head to head over 14 meetings: Sheffield Utd 9 wins, Derby 3 wins, plus 2 draws; goals 22–14.
What to expect
We make Sheffield Utd the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.2%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), with a probability of 67% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 55% and over 2.5 goals is 54%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 14; Sheffield Utd 9 wins, 2 draws, Derby 3 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.6 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Sheffield Utd 15–14, Derby 9–20.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 54%.
- Not available: Sheffield Utd 2, Derby 11.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 55%, odds up to 1.73). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Sheffield Utd: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Not available for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Sheffield UtdWDWLWDerbyLDLLDSheffield Utd vs Derby: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sheffield Utd vs Derby: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
On the result, our pick is Sheffield Utd to win (1.82); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.45). Prefer less risk? Go for Sheffield Utd or draw (1X).
Who will win Sheffield Utd vs Derby?
As we see it: Sheffield Utd to win 53%, the draw 25%, Derby to win 22%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
24 October 2026, 12:30, at Bramall Lane, Sheffield. Referee: Stephen Martin, England.
Who will be missing?
Sheffield Utd: M. Doherty, J. Shackleton. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, L. Travis, J. Widell Zetterstrom, M. Johnston, A. Mowatt. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 54% chance (odds 1.78), against 46% for under 2.5 (odds 2.13).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 55% (odds 1.73).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (10.6%), 2–1 (9.8%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.