Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Derby entertain Stoke City on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at Pride Park Stadium (Derby), with Oliver Langford, England the man in the middle. We do not see a favourite here. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Derby vs Stoke City: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.01 | 3.50 | 2.41 |
| Market average | 2.89 | 3.37 | 2.37 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 1.29 | 72.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 1.96 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.81 | 52.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.51 | 3.33 | 27.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 53.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.01 | 2.00 | 46.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 17/10/26, 12:01. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Derby 1–1 Stoke City, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Derby 23rd (7 points), Stoke City 7th (23 points).
- Absences: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Derby vs Stoke City: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Derby vs Stoke City: injuries, suspensions, absences
Derby
- No reported absences
Stoke City
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Derby vs Stoke City: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Derby
Home and away
Derby vs Stoke City: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Derby: 23rd, 7 points from 13 matches (1W 4D 8L). Stoke City: 7th, 23 points (7W 2D 4L).
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 1–1, close to 2 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (12.6%). We see a fairly level contest.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.75), with a probability of 54% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 54% and over 2.5 goals is 48%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 2 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 48%.
- Not available: Derby 0, Stoke City 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 54%, odds up to 1.75). We project close to 2 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Derby: no absences. Not available for Stoke City: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Derby vs Stoke City: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Derby vs Stoke City?
On the result, our pick is Draw or Stoke City (X2) (1.40); on goals, Both teams to score (1.75). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Stoke City (X2).
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
As we see it: Derby to win 33%, the draw 28%, Stoke City to win 40%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
17 October 2026, 15:00, at Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Referee: Oliver Langford, England.
Who will be missing?
Derby: no absences. Stoke City: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 48% chance (odds 2.03), against 52% for under 2.5 (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 54% (odds 1.75).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (12.6%), 0–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (9.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.