Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Millwall and Derby meet on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at The Den (London), under referee Anthony Backhouse. Millwall (57%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Millwall vs Derby: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Market average | 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.02 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.24 | 74.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.80 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.98 | 47.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.82 | 1.78 | 52.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.00 | 1.94 | 47.9% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 31/10/26, 13:40. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Millwall 1–0 Derby, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Millwall 12th (18 points), Derby 23rd (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Millwall 4W 3D 5L (19:20), Derby 1W 4D 7L (10:21).
- H2H: 23 matches: Millwall 10W 7D 6L, goals 25–26.
- Absences: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Millwall vs Derby: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Millwall vs Derby: injuries, suspensions, absences
Millwall
- T. Arconteankle injury · will miss the match
- J. Coburnmuscle injury · will miss the match
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
Derby
- P. AgyemangAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- E. Cashinnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Clarkecalf injury · will miss the match
- C. Forsythknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Langasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Murkinhamstring injury · will miss the match
- D. Sandersonred card · will miss the match
- C. Taylorinjury · will miss the match
- L. Travisankle injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 |  Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Millwall
Home and away
Millwall vs Derby: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Millwall: 12th, 18 points from 13 matches (5W 3D 5L). Derby: 23rd, 7 points (1W 4D 8L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Millwall 1.6 scored and 1.7 conceded, Derby 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Millwall: 4W 3D 5L, goals 19–20; Derby: 1W 4D 7L, goals 10–21.
- Head to head. Head to head over 23 meetings: Millwall 10 wins, Derby 6 wins, plus 7 draws; goals 25–26.
What to expect
We make Millwall the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–0 (11.5%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.85), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 52% and over 2.5 goals is 52%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 23; Millwall 10 wins, 7 draws, Derby 6 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.2 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Millwall 19–20, Derby 10–21.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Not available: Millwall 7, Derby 9.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 52%, odds up to 1.82). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Not available for Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Millwall vs Derby: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
MillwallWLDLWDerbyLDLLDMillwall vs Derby: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Millwall vs Derby: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Millwall vs Derby?
On the result, our pick is Millwall to win (1.70); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.85). Prefer less risk? Go for Millwall or draw (1X).
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
As we see it: Millwall to win 57%, the draw 24%, Derby to win 19%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
31 October 2026, 15:00, at The Den, London. Referee: Anthony Backhouse.
Who will be missing?
Millwall: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais, M. Luongo. Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor, L. Travis. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 52% chance (odds 1.85), against 48% for under 2.5 (odds 2.05).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 52% (odds 1.82).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–0 (11.5%), 1–1 (10.9%), 2–0 (10.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.