Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bolton and Middlesbrough meet on 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium (Horwich), under referee Simon Hooper, England. Middlesbrough (58%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.66 |
| Market average | 4.70 | 4.38 | 1.62 |
| Lowest odds | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.12 | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.44 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.66 | 35.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.13 | 44.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 23/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bolton 1–2 Middlesbrough, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bolton 19th (14 points), Middlesbrough 1st (28 points).
- Form in the competition: Bolton 4W 2D 5L (15:18), Middlesbrough 6W 4D 1L (22:16).
- H2H: 15 matches: Bolton 1W 1D 13L, goals 9–34.
- Absences: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: injuries, suspensions, absences
Bolton
- J. Nelsonnot in the squad · will miss the match
- C. Forino-Josephgroin injury · doubtful
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury · will miss the match
- R. Pukstasinjury · will miss the match
- D. Strelecinjury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8-4-1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 13 | 8-2-3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 |  Wolves | 13 | 7-3-3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 13 | 7-3-3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 |  Southampton | 13 | 8-3-2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6-5-2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7-2-4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 13 | 6-4-3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 |  QPR | 13 | 5-5-3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5-4-4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 13 | 5-4-4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 13 | 5-3-5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 |  Blackburn | 13 | 5-3-5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5-3-5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 |  Norwich | 13 | 5-0-8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 |  Lincoln | 13 | 4-3-6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 |  Cardiff | 13 | 3-5-5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3-5-5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4-2-7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 |  Charlton | 13 | 3-5-5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 |  Watford | 13 | 3-2-8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 13 | 1-6-6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby | 13 | 1-4-8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1-2-10 | 10:27 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bolton
Home and away
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Bolton: 19th, 14 points from 13 matches (4W 2D 7L). Middlesbrough: 1st, 28 points (8W 4D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Bolton 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Middlesbrough 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bolton: 4W 2D 5L, goals 15–18; Middlesbrough: 6W 4D 1L, goals 22–16.
- Head to head. Head to head over 15 meetings: Bolton 1 win, Middlesbrough 13 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 9–34.
What to expect
We make Middlesbrough the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–2 (9.7%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.56), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 63% and over 2.5 goals is 65%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 15; Bolton 1 win, 1 draw, Middlesbrough 13 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.9 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Bolton 15–18, Middlesbrough 22–16.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Not available: Bolton 2, Middlesbrough 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 63%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Not available for Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Bolton vs Middlesbrough: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
BoltonLLDWLMiddlesbroughWWDWWBolton vs Middlesbrough: head to head
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Bolton vs Middlesbrough: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
On the result, our pick is Middlesbrough to win (1.66); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.56). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Middlesbrough (X2).
Who will win Bolton vs Middlesbrough?
As we see it: Bolton to win 20%, the draw 22%, Middlesbrough to win 58%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
23 October 2026, 20:00, at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Referee: Simon Hooper, England.
Who will be missing?
Bolton: J. Nelson, C. Forino-Joseph. Middlesbrough: A. Jones, R. Pukstas, D. Strelec. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 65% chance (odds 1.56), against 35% for under 2.5 (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–2 (9.7%), 1–1 (9.1%), 0–2 (8.1%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.