Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia (La Liga, 21 November 2026, 15:15): Rayo Vallecano +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.55. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.86. The bookmakers' odds give Rayo Vallecano 47%, the draw 28% and Valencia 25%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Rayo Vallecano win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Rayo Vallecano lose.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia prediction and betting preview
Our tip for Rayo Vallecano against Valencia is Rayo Vallecano +0 at odds 1.55, a price the bookmakers put at a 65% chance. The match is La Liga Matchweek 13, played at the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas in Madrid on 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 15:15.
Main facts
- Likely result: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Valencia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rayo Vallecano 14th (12 points), Valencia 19th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Rayo Vallecano 3W 3D 5L (15:21), Valencia 2W 3D 7L (8:20).
- H2H: 22 matches: Rayo Vallecano 5W 10D 7L, goals 18–28.
- Absences: Rayo Vallecano 0, Valencia 0.
Vallecas is where Rayo look strongest
Rayo are 14th in La Liga with 12 points from 11 matches, having won 3, drawn 3 and lost 5. Their goals read 15 scored and 21 conceded, which is not a record we would celebrate. Valencia are 19th on 9 points from 12 matches, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats, and they have scored only 8 while conceding 20.
The number that moves us is Rayo's home record in this competition: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 7 conceded. Valencia's away figures are 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 5 scored and 6 conceded. Rayo are a side that gets results at home.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Form in all competitions, and where it misleads
The table covers La Liga only, while the recent matches cover every competition, so the two can point in different directions. Rayo's last five matches in all competitions brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those games, and there were more than 2.5 goals in 2. Rayo kept a clean sheet in 1 and failed to score in 2.
Valencia's last five in all competitions read the same way on results, 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, but the goals tell a worse story: 4 scored and 7 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those matches, and there were more than 2.5 goals in 3. Valencia kept a clean sheet in 2 and failed to score in 2. Their single win came 1-0 away at Elche, and the most recent result was a 3-0 home defeat to Real Madrid. We like the 0-0 with Athletic Club as a sign of resilience, but it has not translated into a steady supply of points.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | 11-0-1 | 48:13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10-0-2 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atlético Madrid | 12 | 9-1-2 | 23:10 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | 8-2-2 | 20:15 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | 7-1-4 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | 4-4-3 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | 4-3-5 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 12 | 3-6-3 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | 4-2-6 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 2-7-3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:21 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | 3-3-6 | 8:18 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3-3-6 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | 2-5-5 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | 2-4-6 | 14:20 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2-3-7 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 12 | 0-5-7 | 9:23 | 5 |
Recent matches
Rayo Vallecano
Home and away
No earlier meeting and no absences to weigh
We have no record of a previous meeting between these two clubs, so there is no head-to-head pattern to use. Neither side has any absence reported, which leaves us judging the match on form, the venue and the prices.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: injuries, suspensions, absences
Rayo Vallecano
- No reported absences
Valencia
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Rayo VallecanoLWLDDValenciaLWLDDOur tip for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: Rayo Vallecano +0
We like Rayo Vallecano +0 at 1.55. The bet wins if Rayo win, returns the stake on a draw and loses if Valencia win. Our reasons are these:
- Valencia have won only one of their last five matches in all competitions.
- Rayo have 12 points in this competition against 9 for Valencia.
- At Vallecas, Rayo have won 3 matches in this competition.
- The market gives Rayo a 65% chance at best odds of 1.55.
On the likeliest scores, the tip wins on 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0, returns the stake on 1-1 and 0-0, and loses only on 0-1. The bookmakers see Rayo as the more likely winners, with the match result priced at 47% for Rayo, 28% for a draw and 25% for Valencia, and the bookmaker margin on the result is 6.7%.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: last matches of both teams
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Head to head
All matchesOur other tip: Under 2.5 goals
Our second tip is under 2.5 goals at 1.86, which the market rates at 54%. Rayo have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last five matches in all competitions, and Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last five. The bet wins on 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0 and 0-1, and it loses on 2-1. The market expects about three goals in total, with Rayo at 2 and Valencia at 1, and we think that is a fair reading of two sides who have not been prolific.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.13 | 3.60 | 3.93 |
| Market average | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.69 |
| Lowest odds | 1.93 | 3.14 | 3.28 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 70.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.51 | 26.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.83 | 51.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.92 | 1.90 | 49.0% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 8/11/26, 16:51. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.7%.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
Other bets we would consider
If you prefer a wider safety net, Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X) at 1.32 carries a 75% chance and covers both a Rayo win and a draw. Under 3.5 goals at 1.30 is priced at 73% by the market, and Valencia +1.5 at 1.28 wins unless Valencia lose by two or more goals, which keeps the stake alive in most narrow outcomes. We would not put money on Valencia +1.5 and Rayo +0 together, because the two sides' prices already reflect the same match. The reason we keep returning to Rayo is simple: they have the better table position, the better home record and the stronger market rating, and those three things are the core of our case.
Match odds
Returns calculator
Match events
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano +0 (Asian handicap) (1.55); Under 2.5 goals (1.86).
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
As we see it: Rayo Vallecano to win 47%, the draw 28%, Valencia to win 25%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
21 November 2026, 15:15, at Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas, Madrid.
Who will be missing?
Rayo Vallecano: no absences. Valencia: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 46% chance (odds 2.10), against 54% for under 2.5 (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 51% (odds 1.91).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.