Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Valencia v Villarreal takes place on 24 October 2026 · 17:30 at Estadio de Mestalla (Valdivia); Alejandro Quintero González, Spain will referee. We back Villarreal (46%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Valencia vs Villarreal: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.55 | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| Market average | 3.46 | 3.59 | 2.09 |
| Lowest odds | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 1.22 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.13 | 44.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.88 | 2.77 | 34.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.4% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 24/10/26, 12:03. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Valencia 1–1 Villarreal, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Valencia 19th (9 points), Villarreal 8th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Valencia 1W 3D 5L (6:15), Villarreal 2W 3D 4L (13:13).
- H2H: 35 matches: Valencia 14W 7D 14L, goals 47–42.
- Absences: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Valencia vs Villarreal: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Valencia vs Villarreal: injuries, suspensions, absences
Valencia
- S. Canosknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Copeteknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Foulquierknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lopezknee injury · will miss the match
- U. Sadiqmuscle injury · will miss the match
Villarreal
- N. Pepeabsence · will miss the match
- C. Romeroinjury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Valencia vs Villarreal: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 12 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 2-5-3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Valencia
Home and away
Valencia vs Villarreal: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Valencia: 19th, 9 points from 11 matches (2W 3D 6L). Villarreal: 8th, 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Valencia 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded, Villarreal 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Valencia: 1W 3D 5L, goals 6–15; Villarreal: 2W 3D 4L, goals 13–13.
- Head to head. Head to head over 35 meetings: Valencia 14 wins, Villarreal 14 wins, plus 7 draws; goals 47–42.
What to expect
We make Villarreal the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.3%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 59% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 35; Valencia 14 wins, 7 draws, Villarreal 14 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.5 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Valencia 6–15, Villarreal 13–13.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Not available: Valencia 5, Villarreal 2.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 59%, odds up to 1.62). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Not available for Villarreal: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Valencia vs Villarreal: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
ValenciaWLDDLVillarrealLWDLWValencia vs Villarreal: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Valencia vs Villarreal: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Valencia vs Villarreal?
On the result, our pick is Villarreal to win (2.17); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.47). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Villarreal (X2).
Who will win Valencia vs Villarreal?
As we see it: Valencia to win 28%, the draw 27%, Villarreal to win 46%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
24 October 2026, 17:30, at Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia. Referee: Alejandro Quintero González, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Valencia: S. Canos, J. Copete, D. Foulquier, D. Lopez, U. Sadiq. Villarreal: N. Pepe, C. Romero. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.79), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (9.1%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.