Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña tip, odds and prediction, 21 November 2026, La Liga

Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña prediction and betting preview

Expected goals put Alavés and Deportivo La Coruña at about one each, so the bookmakers see roughly two goals in total at the Mendizorrotza on 21 November 2026, kick-off 13:00. The two likeliest exact scores, 1-1 and 1-0, each carry a 12.7% chance, and 0-1 follows at 9.1%. Those three numbers tell most of the story before a ball is kicked.

Where the attack meets the defence

In La Liga this season both sides have scored 15 times and averaged 1.3 goals a match, so the attacks look equal on paper. The gap opens at the back. Alavés have conceded 17, or 1.4 per match, while Deportivo have let in 14, or 1.2. We trust that 1.2 more, because it comes from a defence that has been harder to break down than the home side's.

Alavés are 12th on 13 points and Deportivo 9th on 15, and both figures refer to this competition only. The gap is real, but it is not huge, and the venue splits are where we would look first.

Home splits matter more than the season totals

At the Mendizorrotza, Alavés have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded. That is a far better home return than their overall 3 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats. Deportivo's away return is 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 7 scored and 8 conceded. Neither side has been ruthless on the road, and we see little reason to expect a big away performance from either.

Two sides arriving without momentum

Across all competitions, Alavés' last five matches brought no wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. The heaviest of those was a 6-1 defeat at Barcelona on 31 October, while the home game against Atlético Madrid on 10 October ended 1-2. Those results read badly, and we would not put much faith in the attack right now.

Deportivo's last five in every competition gave them 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their one win was a 2-1 home success over Osasuna on 2 November. They have been better than Alavés recently, but only just, and the form table is no reason to shout about them.

No history to lean on, and no injury news

There is no earlier meeting between these clubs on record, so the head-to-head gives us nothing to work with. No absences have been reported for either side, which means we are judging both squads at full strength on the form figures alone.

Our tip for Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña: Under 2.5 goals

Our main tip is under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77, with a 56% chance in the market. The expected total of about two goals is the foundation. We would not back the under if we thought either side was likely to rattle in three, and the figures do not suggest that.

• Deportivo La Coruña have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 5 matches.
• The match is expected to produce about 2 goals in total.
• At the best available price of 1.77, the bookmakers put the under 2.5 goals at a 56% chance.

The tip wins on 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 2-0, and it loses only on 2-1. That covers most of the likeliest results, which is why we are comfortable with the price. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.22 with a 44% chance, so the market leans the same way we do.

Our other tip: Alavés to win

Our second tip is Alavés to win at odds of 2.12, a 46% chance in the market. Deportivo have won just 1 of their last 5, and Alavés have a home record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats to build on. That is enough for us to side with the home team, though we would not chase the price beyond 2.12.

The tip wins on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1, and loses on 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. Both of our tips win on 1-0 and 2-0, but they split on 1-1 and 2-1, so backing both means choosing how to divide the stake between those scores.

Alternatives if the under does not appeal

If you want a different angle, these are the three we would consider from the available prices.

• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.26, a 76% chance, which sits comfortably beside our main pick.
• Alavés or draw at odds 1.31, a 74% chance, which covers the home side unless they lose.
• Deportivo La Coruña +1.5 on the Asian handicap at odds 1.25, a 76% chance, which wins unless Deportivo lose by 2 or more.

The most likely score is 1-1

Our view is that the under 2.5 goals at 1.77 is the bet to play, with Alavés to win at 2.12 as the choice for anyone who wants the home side. The most likely score is 1-1, with 1-0 level at the top of the market's list and 0-1 next at 9.1%. We would keep stakes modest, since neither side is in good form and the margins between the two are small.