Football bet of the day

The bet of the day is one tip: the pick our model rates most likely to win among the headline tips of all the matches we cover that day. It is not chosen by hand and it is not a hunch. It comes from the same Predictions we publish for every match, and you can open the full prediction of the match behind it with one click.

How the bet of the day is chosen

For every match we collect the odds of the bookmakers that price it. We turn those odds into chances, take out the margin the bookmakers build into their prices and average them into a market consensus. From that consensus each match gets a headline tip: a result, a double chance, an Asian handicap or a goals market, whichever offers the best balance of chance and price. A headline tip must be more likely than not and priced at 1.50 or more. The bet of the day is the headline tip with the highest chance of all the matches of the day.

What the card tells you

The card shows the match, the kick-off, the competition and the tip. Next to the tip you see the best odds we found, our chance and the fair odds. The fair odds are one divided by our chance: a tip with a 60% chance has fair odds of 1.67. When the best odds are higher than the fair odds, the price is on your side; when they are lower, the bookmakers expect the tip more strongly than we do. The card also shows what a stake would return at the best odds, a countdown to kick-off and, once the match is played, the final score and whether the tip won.

The reason under the tip

Under the tip you find a short reason. It is written from the facts of the match page only: the form and results of both teams, their goals, the table, the head to head and the absences. Before it is published it is read a second time, claim by claim, against those facts. A reason that names a figure the facts do not give, or argues against the tip, is never shown.

Today, tomorrow and the weekend

The tabs show the bet of today, of tomorrow and of the coming weekend. The bet of today is fixed as soon as it is published and never changed afterwards, whatever the odds do. Tomorrow and the weekend are shown as they stand now: they can still change until their day comes, as new odds arrive and matches are added. When no match is left to play today, the page opens on the next day.

Our record in numbers

Below the tips you find every recent bet of the day with its result, and a table of the last 7 and 30 days. It counts one unit staked on each pick at the odds of publication: the staked units, what came back, the profit or loss and the return on investment. Losing days stay in the table like the winning ones. A record over a few days says little; judge it over weeks, and remember that past results do not promise future ones.

Singles, doubles and accas

The bet of the day is a single. If you prefer several picks in one slip, our Accumulators combine the most likely tips of the day into ready-made accumulators. Every extra leg multiplies the odds, but it also multiplies the chances: three picks at 70% each land together only about one time in three.

Bet responsibly

No tip is sure. Even the most likely pick of the day loses regularly, and our chance tells you how often it is expected to win. Set a budget, stake the same amount on each pick, never chase losses and only bet if you are 18 or over. If betting stops being fun, the organisations listed at the bottom of every page offer free and confidential help.