Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lecce v Genoa takes place on 1 November 2026 · 17:00 at Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce); Matteo Marchetti will referee. We call it a level game. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Lecce vs Genoa: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.37 | 3.11 | 2.58 |
| Market average | 3.19 | 3.00 | 2.46 |
| Lowest odds | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.29 | 41.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.63 | 58.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.50 | 4.15 | 22.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.00 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.84 | 50.6% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 1/11/26, 16:38. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lecce 1–1 Genoa, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lecce 14th (9 points), Genoa 11th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Lecce 3W 0D 6L (10:19), Genoa 3W 1D 5L (8:13).
- H2H: 14 matches: Lecce 2W 5D 7L, goals 14–24.
- Absences: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Lecce vs Genoa: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lecce vs Genoa: injuries, suspensions, absences
Lecce
- M. Berishathigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Coulibalythigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Gasparred card · will miss the match
- W. Geubbelsmuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Ilicthigh injury · will miss the match
- S. Pierottiankle injury · will miss the match
Genoa
- E. Havelankle injury · will miss the match
- L. Venturinoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. E. Ellertssonankle injury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Lecce vs Genoa: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 9 | 3-2-4 | 16:17 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sassuolo | 9 | 2-2-5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 9 | 1-2-6 | 11:21 | 5 |
| 18 |  Parma | 9 | 1-2-6 | 5:15 | 5 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Lecce
Home and away
Lecce vs Genoa: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Lecce: 14th, 9 points from 10 matches (3W 0D 7L). Genoa: 11th, 13 points (4W 1D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Lecce 1.1 scored and 2.1 conceded, Genoa 0.9 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lecce: 3W 0D 6L, goals 10–19; Genoa: 3W 1D 5L, goals 8–13.
- Head to head. Head to head over 14 meetings: Lecce 2 wins, Genoa 7 wins, plus 5 draws; goals 14–24.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 1–1, close to 2 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (13.2%). We see a fairly level contest.
On goals we like Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.69), with a probability of 58% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 49% and over 2.5 goals is 42%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 14; Lecce 2 wins, 5 draws, Genoa 7 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.7 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Lecce 10–19, Genoa 8–13.
- Projected: close to 2 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 42%.
- Not available: Lecce 6, Genoa 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: no
Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 51%, odds up to 1.95). We project close to 2 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Not available for Genoa: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Lecce vs Genoa: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
LecceLLLWLGenoaWWWLWLecce vs Genoa: head to head
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Lecce vs Genoa: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Lecce vs Genoa?
On the result, our pick is Draw or Genoa (X2) (1.40); on goals, Under 2.5 goals (1.69). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Genoa (X2).
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
As we see it: Lecce to win 30%, the draw 32%, Genoa to win 39%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
1 November 2026, 17:00, at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. Referee: Matteo Marchetti.
Who will be missing?
Lecce: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar, W. Geubbels, I. Ilic, S. Pierotti. Genoa: E. Havel, L. Venturino, M. E. Ellertsson. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 42% chance (odds 2.44), against 58% for under 2.5 (odds 1.69).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 49% (odds 2.00).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (13.2%), 0–1 (12.5%), 1–0 (10.5%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.