Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax entertain Atalanta on 22 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), with A. Nobre the man in the middle. Ajax (46%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Ajax vs Atalanta: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.21 | 4.03 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.82 | 3.14 |
| Lowest odds | 1.98 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.82 | 33.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.94 | 2.83 | 32.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 22/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 13th (3 points), Atalanta 15th (3 points).
- Absences: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Ajax vs Atalanta: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Ajax vs Atalanta: injuries, suspensions, absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
Atalanta
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Ajax vs Atalanta: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Ajax vs Atalanta: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Ajax: 13th, 3 points from 2 matches (1W 0D 1L). Atalanta: 15th, 3 points (1W 0D 1L).
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–2, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (9.5%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), with a probability of 67% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 67% and over 2.5 goals is 67%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 67%.
- Not available: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Other option: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, odds up to 1.84). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Ajax: no absences. Not available for Atalanta: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Ajax vs Atalanta: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Ajax vs Atalanta?
On the result, our pick is Ajax to win (2.21); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.45). Prefer less risk? Go for Ajax or draw (1X).
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
As we see it: Ajax to win 46%, the draw 25%, Atalanta to win 30%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
22 October 2026, 20:00, at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: A. Nobre.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: no absences. Atalanta: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 67% chance (odds 1.45), against 33% for under 2.5 (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 67% (odds 1.40).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (9.5%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (7.1%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.