Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax takes place on 25 October 2026 · 15:45 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel (Rotterdam); Danny Makkelie will referee. We back Ajax (66%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 6.30 | 5.42 | 1.48 |
| Market average | 6.01 | 5.08 | 1.44 |
| Lowest odds | 5.50 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.86 | 50.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.52 | 36.7% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 25/10/26, 12:59. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 4L (16:22), Ajax 5W 3D 1L (27:12).
- H2H: 19 matches: Sparta Rotterdam 0W 3D 16L, goals 16–49.
- Absences: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: injuries, suspensions, absences
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
- D. Blindback injury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Sparta Rotterdam
Home and away
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Sparta Rotterdam: 11th, 12 points from 11 matches (3W 3D 5L). Ajax: 2nd, 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Sparta Rotterdam 1.8 scored and 2.4 conceded, Ajax 3.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 4L, goals 16–22; Ajax: 5W 3D 1L, goals 27–12.
- Head to head. Head to head over 19 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, Ajax 16 wins, plus 3 draws; goals 16–49.
What to expect
We make Ajax the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–2 (9.4%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.50), with a probability of 63% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 63% and over 2.5 goals is 71%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 19; Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, 3 draws, Ajax 16 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.4 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Sparta Rotterdam 16–22, Ajax 27–12.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 71%.
- Not available: Sparta Rotterdam 1, Ajax 7.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 63%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Not available for Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Sparta RotterdamWLWDLAjaxWWWDDSparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
On the result, our pick is Ajax to win (1.48); on goals, Both teams to score (1.50). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Ajax (X2).
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
As we see it: Sparta Rotterdam to win 16%, the draw 19%, Ajax to win 66%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
25 October 2026, 15:45, at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Rotterdam. Referee: Danny Makkelie.
Who will be missing?
Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis, D. Blind. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 71% chance (odds 1.36), against 29% for under 2.5 (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–2 (9.4%), 0–2 (8.2%), 1–3 (7.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.