Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar meet on 31 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam), under referee Allard Lindhout. Ajax (54%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.80 | 4.55 | 4.18 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.28 | 3.98 |
| Lowest odds | 1.60 | 3.81 | 3.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 1.36 | 68.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.01 | 31.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.07 | 1.96 | 48.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.42 | 1.39 | 66.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.80 | 33.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 31/10/26, 13:04. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.5%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 2nd (24 points), AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Ajax 6W 3D 1L (29:13), AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 37 matches: Ajax 15W 8D 14L, goals 62–48.
- Absences: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: injuries, suspensions, absences
Ajax
- S. Adingraabsence · will miss the match
- Caio Henriquethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Dolbergknee injury · will miss the match
- O. Edvardsennot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Gaaeiinjury · will miss the match
- S. Berghuisinjury · doubtful
AZ Alkmaar
- J. Hornkampinjury · will miss the match
- A. Oufkirabsence · will miss the match
- S. Resinkknee injury · will miss the match
- K. Smitinjury · will miss the match
- J. Zoetnot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Goesnot in the squad · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Ajax
Home and away
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Ajax: 2nd, 24 points from 11 matches (7W 3D 1L). AZ Alkmaar: 5th, 20 points (6W 2D 3L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Ajax 2.9 scored and 1.3 conceded, AZ Alkmaar 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Ajax: 6W 3D 1L, goals 29–13; AZ Alkmaar: 6W 2D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. Head to head over 37 meetings: Ajax 15 wins, AZ Alkmaar 14 wins, plus 8 draws; goals 62–48.
What to expect
We make Ajax the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.3%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 67% and over 2.5 goals is 69%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 37; Ajax 15 wins, 8 draws, AZ Alkmaar 14 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.0 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Ajax 29–13, AZ Alkmaar 20–12.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 69%.
- Not available: Ajax 6, AZ Alkmaar 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Other option: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, odds up to 2.07). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. Not available for AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
AjaxWWWDDAZ AlkmaarLLDLWAjax vs AZ Alkmaar: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
On the result, our pick is Ajax to win (1.80); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.87). Prefer less risk? Go for Ajax or draw (1X).
Who will win Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?
As we see it: Ajax to win 54%, the draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar to win 24%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
31 October 2026, 20:00, at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: Allard Lindhout.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis. AZ Alkmaar: J. Hornkamp, A. Oufkir, S. Resink, K. Smit, J. Zoet, W. Goes. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 69% chance (odds 1.41), against 31% for under 2.5 (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 67% (odds 1.42).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.3%), 1–1 (8.6%), 3–1 (6.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.