Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–5. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen v Ajax takes place on 18 October 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen); Dennis Higler will referee. We back Ajax (52%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Groningen vs Ajax: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 4.10 | 4.37 | 1.85 |
| Market average | 3.80 | 4.17 | 1.81 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 69.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.07 | 30.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 49.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.36 | 67.9% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.1% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 18/10/26, 13:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Groningen 1–2 Ajax, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Ajax 2nd (24 points).
- Absences: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Groningen vs Ajax: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Groningen vs Ajax: injuries, suspensions, absences
Groningen
- No reported absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Groningen vs Ajax: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Groningen
Home and away
Groningen vs Ajax: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Groningen: 8th, 15 points from 11 matches (4W 3D 4L). Ajax: 2nd, 24 points (7W 3D 1L).
What to expect
We make Ajax the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–2 (9.2%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.96), with a probability of 50% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 68% and over 2.5 goals is 70%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 70%.
- Not available: Groningen 0, Ajax 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Other option: Over 3.5 goals (probability 50%, odds up to 1.93). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Groningen: no absences. Not available for Ajax: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Groningen vs Ajax: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Groningen vs Ajax?
On the result, our pick is Ajax to win (1.85); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.96). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Ajax (X2).
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
As we see it: Groningen to win 25%, the draw 23%, Ajax to win 52%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
18 October 2026, 15:45, at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Dennis Higler.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: no absences. Ajax: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 70% chance (odds 1.36), against 30% for under 2.5 (odds 3.30).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–2 (9.2%), 1–1 (8.7%), 2–2 (6.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.