Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fiorentina v Atalanta takes place on 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence); Federico La Penna will referee. We call it a level game. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.47 | 3.86 | 3.10 |
| Market average | 2.35 | 3.68 | 2.84 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.46 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.68 | 35.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 68.0% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.91 | 32.0% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 29/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Fiorentina 17th (5 points), Atalanta 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fiorentina 1W 1D 6L (9:19), Atalanta 3W 1D 4L (14:15).
- H2H: 37 matches: Fiorentina 17W 10D 10L, goals 59–51.
- Absences: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: injuries, suspensions, absences
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · doubtful
Atalanta
- R. Bellanovathigh injury · will miss the match
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scamaccathigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 9 | 3-2-4 | 16:17 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sassuolo | 9 | 2-2-5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1-2-6 | 11:21 | 5 |
| 18 |  Parma | 9 | 1-2-6 | 5:15 | 5 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Fiorentina
Home and away
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Fiorentina: 17th, 5 points from 9 matches (1W 2D 6L). Atalanta: 13th, 11 points (3W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Fiorentina 1.1 scored and 2.4 conceded, Atalanta 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Fiorentina: 1W 1D 6L, goals 9–19; Atalanta: 3W 1D 4L, goals 14–15.
- Head to head. Head to head over 37 meetings: Fiorentina 17 wins, Atalanta 10 wins, plus 10 draws; goals 59–51.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–2, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.2%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Atalanta look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the home side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 68% and over 2.5 goals is 65%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 37; Fiorentina 17 wins, 10 draws, Atalanta 10 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.0 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Fiorentina 9–19, Atalanta 14–15.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 65%.
- Not available: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Other option: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, odds up to 1.84). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Not available for Atalanta: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
FiorentinaDLLLDAtalantaDDLWLFiorentina vs Atalanta: head to head
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Fiorentina vs Atalanta: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
On the result, our pick is Fiorentina or draw (1X) (1.48); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.57). Prefer less risk? Go for Fiorentina or draw (1X).
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
As we see it: Fiorentina to win 41%, the draw 26%, Atalanta to win 34%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
29 October 2026, 19:45, at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Referee: Federico La Penna.
Who will be missing?
Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Atalanta: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 65% chance (odds 1.57), against 35% for under 2.5 (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.2%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (7.9%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.