Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Moreirense v Estrela takes place on 31 October 2026 · 15:30 at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas (Guimarães); Joao Pinheiro will referee. We call it a level game. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Moreirense vs Estrela: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.21 | 3.45 | 2.51 |
| Market average | 2.97 | 3.22 | 2.39 |
| Lowest odds | 2.58 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.07 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.75 | 54.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.82 | 3.71 | 25.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.85 | 1.80 | 51.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.93 | 48.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 31/10/26, 14:10. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Moreirense 1–1 Estrela, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Moreirense 9th (14 points), Estrela 12th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Moreirense 3W 2D 4L (11:16), Estrela 2W 4D 3L (14:17).
- H2H: 10 matches: Moreirense 5W 4D 1L, goals 18–12.
- Absences: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Moreirense vs Estrela: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Moreirense vs Estrela: injuries, suspensions, absences
Moreirense
- No reported absences
Estrela
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Moreirense vs Estrela: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7-1-1 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4-2-3 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 9 | 3-2-4 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2-2-5 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Moreirense
Home and away
Moreirense vs Estrela: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Moreirense: 9th, 14 points from 10 matches (4W 2D 4L). Estrela: 12th, 10 points (2W 4D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Moreirense 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, Estrela 1.6 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Moreirense: 3W 2D 4L, goals 11–16; Estrela: 2W 4D 3L, goals 14–17.
- Head to head. Head to head over 10 meetings: Moreirense 5 wins, Estrela 1 win, plus 4 draws; goals 18–12.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 1–1, close to 2 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (12.9%). We see a fairly level contest.
The two signals clash: on table position the Moreirense look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the away side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.82), with a probability of 54% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 52% and over 2.5 goals is 46%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 10; Moreirense 5 wins, 4 draws, Estrela 1 win.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.0 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Moreirense 11–16, Estrela 14–17.
- Projected: close to 2 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Not available: Moreirense 0, Estrela 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 52%, odds up to 1.85). We project close to 2 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Moreirense: no absences. Not available for Estrela: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Moreirense vs Estrela: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
MoreirenseWWLDWEstrelaLLLLDMoreirense vs Estrela: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Moreirense vs Estrela: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Moreirense vs Estrela?
On the result, our pick is Draw or Estrela (X2) (1.42); on goals, Under 2.5 goals (1.82). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Estrela (X2).
Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?
As we see it: Moreirense to win 32%, the draw 29%, Estrela to win 39%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
31 October 2026, 15:30, at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães. Referee: Joao Pinheiro.
Who will be missing?
Moreirense: no absences. Estrela: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 46% chance (odds 2.17), against 54% for under 2.5 (odds 1.82).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 52% (odds 1.85).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (12.9%), 0–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (9.9%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.