Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Estrela entertain Casa Pia on 24 October 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio José Gomes (Amadora), with B. J. Costa the man in the middle. Estrela (53%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.84 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Market average | 1.79 | 3.59 | 4.55 |
| Lowest odds | 1.74 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 1.89 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.19 | 29.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.81 | 1.77 | 52.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 1.96 | 47.5% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 24/10/26, 14:24. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Estrela 1–1 Casa Pia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Estrela 12th (10 points), Casa Pia 17th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Estrela 2W 4D 2L (14:15), Casa Pia 1W 1D 6L (3:17).
- H2H: 11 matches: Estrela 5W 1D 5L, goals 16–14.
- Absences: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Estrela vs Casa Pia: injuries, suspensions, absences
Estrela
- No reported absences
Casa Pia
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7-1-1 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4-2-3 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 9 | 3-2-4 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2-2-5 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Estrela
Home and away
Estrela vs Casa Pia: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Estrela: 12th, 10 points from 10 matches (2W 4D 4L). Casa Pia: 17th, 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Estrela 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded, Casa Pia 0.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Estrela: 2W 4D 2L, goals 14–15; Casa Pia: 1W 1D 6L, goals 3–17.
- Head to head. Head to head over 11 meetings: Estrela 5 wins, Casa Pia 5 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 16–14.
What to expect
We make Estrela the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.4%). We see a fairly level contest.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.81), with a probability of 53% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 53% and over 2.5 goals is 50%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 11; Estrela 5 wins, 1 draw, Casa Pia 5 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.7 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Estrela 14–15, Casa Pia 3–17.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Not available: Estrela 0, Casa Pia 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 53%, odds up to 1.81). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Estrela: no absences. Not available for Casa Pia: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
EstrelaLLLLDCasa PiaLWLWLEstrela vs Casa Pia: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Estrela vs Casa Pia: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
On the result, our pick is Estrela to win (1.84); on goals, Both teams to score (1.81). Prefer less risk? Go for Estrela or draw (1X).
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
As we see it: Estrela to win 53%, the draw 26%, Casa Pia to win 21%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
24 October 2026, 15:30, at Estádio José Gomes, Amadora. Referee: B. J. Costa.
Who will be missing?
Estrela: no absences. Casa Pia: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 50% chance (odds 1.96), against 50% for under 2.5 (odds 1.98).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 53% (odds 1.81).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.4%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.