Bet with MINO CASINO →FC Porto v Napoli takes place on 4 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio do Dragão (Porto). We back FC Porto (48%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
FC Porto vs Napoli: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.06 | 3.88 | 3.75 |
| Market average | 2.00 | 3.72 | 3.59 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Megapari | 2.06 | 3.82 | 3.74 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.22 | 77.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 1.74 | 54.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.10 | 45.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 2.79 | 33.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.65 | 1.62 | 57.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 2/11/26, 12:30. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.9%.
Megapari: prices for this match
Partner odds, refreshed 2/11/26, 14:46. A click takes you to this match at Megapari. 18+
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FC Porto 1–1 Napoli, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Porto 34th (0 points), Napoli 22nd (3 points).
- Form in the competition: FC Porto 0W 0D 3L (2:6), Napoli 1W 0D 2L (5:7).
- Absences: FC Porto 7, Napoli 13.
Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
FC Porto vs Napoli: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Most likely correct scores
FC Porto vs Napoli: injuries, suspensions, absences
FC Porto
- Gabriel Mecnot in the squad · will miss the match
- D. Prpicnot in the squad · will miss the match
- V. Sousaabsence · will miss the match
- William Gomesankle injury · will miss the match
- O. Pietuszewskimuscle injury · doubtful
- C. Smallinginjury · doubtful
- Zaiduinjury · doubtful
Napoli
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury · will miss the match
- B. Badiashileinjury · will miss the match
- A. Buongiornoknee injury · will miss the match
- David Neresthigh injury · will miss the match
- C. Favasulithigh injury · will miss the match
- R. Hojlundillness · will miss the match
- S. Lobotkaankle injury · will miss the match
- L. Marianuccinot in the squad · will miss the match
- V. Milinkovic-Savicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Spinazzolathigh injury · will miss the match
- K. De Bruyneankle injury · doubtful
- G. Di Lorenzomuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Oliveramuscle injury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
FC Porto vs Napoli: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2-0-1 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2-0-1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1-2-0 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0-1-2 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
FC Porto
Home and away
FC Porto vs Napoli: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. FC Porto: 34th, 0 points from 3 matches (0W 0D 3L). Napoli: 22nd, 3 points (1W 0D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: FC Porto 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded, Napoli 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FC Porto: 0W 0D 3L, goals 2–6; Napoli: 1W 0D 2L, goals 5–7.
What to expect
We make FC Porto the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.5%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 58% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.
Main points of the prediction
- This competition, scored–conceded: FC Porto 2–6, Napoli 5–7.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Not available: FC Porto 7, Napoli 13.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 58%, odds up to 1.65). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for FC Porto: Gabriel Mec, D. Prpic, V. Sousa, William Gomes, O. Pietuszewski, C. Smalling, Zaidu. Not available for Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, R. Hojlund, S. Lobotka, L. Marianucci, V. Milinkovic-Savic, L. Spinazzola, K. De Bruyne, G. Di Lorenzo, M. Olivera. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
FC Porto vs Napoli: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
FC PortoLLLNapoliWLLReturns calculator
FC Porto vs Napoli: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for FC Porto vs Napoli?
On the result, our pick is FC Porto to win (2.06); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.45). Prefer less risk? Go for FC Porto or draw (1X).
Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?
As we see it: FC Porto to win 48%, the draw 26%, Napoli to win 27%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
4 November 2026, 20:00, at Estádio do Dragão, Porto.
Who will be missing?
FC Porto: Gabriel Mec, D. Prpic, V. Sousa, William Gomes, O. Pietuszewski, C. Smalling, Zaidu. Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, R. Hojlund, S. Lobotka, L. Marianucci, V. Milinkovic-Savic, L. Spinazzola, K. De Bruyne, G. Di Lorenzo, M. Olivera. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.81), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.17).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 58% (odds 1.65).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (9.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.