Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Monza and Napoli meet on 28 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Brianteo (Monza), under referee Giovanni Ayroldi. Napoli (56%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Monza vs Napoli: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 4.89 | 4.06 | 1.71 |
| Market average | 4.78 | 4.04 | 1.71 |
| Lowest odds | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.20 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 1.69 | 56.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 2.21 | 43.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.69 | 35.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.11 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 28/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.3%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Monza 1–1 Napoli, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Monza 16th (7 points), Napoli 8th (14 points).
- Form in the competition: Monza 2W 1D 5L (15:18), Napoli 3W 2D 3L (13:10).
- H2H: 7 matches: Monza 1W 1D 5L, goals 5–15.
- Absences: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Monza vs Napoli: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Monza vs Napoli: injuries, suspensions, absences
Monza
- M. Folorunshoabsence · will miss the match
- Y. Mayemuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Pessinaknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Ziolkowskifoot injury · will miss the match
Napoli
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury · will miss the match
- B. Badiashileinjury · will miss the match
- A. Buongiornoknee injury · will miss the match
- David Neresthigh injury · will miss the match
- C. Favasulithigh injury · will miss the match
- L. Spinazzolathigh injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Monza vs Napoli: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 9 | 3-2-4 | 16:17 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sassuolo | 9 | 2-2-5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 16 | Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 9 | 1-2-6 | 11:21 | 5 |
| 18 |  Parma | 9 | 1-2-6 | 5:15 | 5 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Monza
Home and away
Monza vs Napoli: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Monza: 16th, 7 points from 10 matches (2W 1D 7L). Napoli: 8th, 14 points (4W 2D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Monza 1.9 scored and 2.3 conceded, Napoli 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Monza: 2W 1D 5L, goals 15–18; Napoli: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–10.
- Head to head. Head to head over 7 meetings: Monza 1 win, Napoli 5 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 5–15.
What to expect
We make Napoli the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.4%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.49), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 56% and over 2.5 goals is 57%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 7; Monza 1 win, 1 draw, Napoli 5 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.9 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Monza 15–18, Napoli 13–10.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 57%.
- Not available: Monza 4, Napoli 6.
Alternative tip: Over 2.5 goals
Other option: Over 2.5 goals (probability 57%, odds up to 1.71). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Not available for Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Monza vs Napoli: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
MonzaLLLWLNapoliLWDLWMonza vs Napoli: head to head
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Monza vs Napoli: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Monza vs Napoli?
On the result, our pick is Napoli to win (1.71); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.49). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Napoli (X2).
Who will win Monza vs Napoli?
As we see it: Monza to win 20%, the draw 24%, Napoli to win 56%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
28 October 2026, 19:45, at Stadio Brianteo, Monza. Referee: Giovanni Ayroldi.
Who will be missing?
Monza: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina, J. Ziolkowski. Napoli: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile, A. Buongiorno, David Neres, C. Favasuli, L. Spinazzola. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 57% chance (odds 1.71), against 43% for under 2.5 (odds 2.24).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 56% (odds 1.67).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.4%), 0–1 (9.9%), 1–2 (9.9%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.