Bet with MINO CASINO →Atlético Madrid v Bayern München takes place on 3 November 2026 · 20:00 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano (Madrid); François Letexier will referee. We call it a level game. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.67 | 4.00 | 2.56 |
| Market average | 2.58 | 3.86 | 2.47 |
| Lowest odds | 2.50 | 3.52 | 2.16 |
| Megapari | 2.78 | 4.01 | 2.46 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.11 | 83.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 1.43 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.74 | 34.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.89 | 2.84 | 32.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 2/11/26, 08:15. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.3%.
Megapari: prices for this match
Partner odds, refreshed 2/11/26, 15:11. A click takes you to this match at Megapari. 18+
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Atlético Madrid 1–1 Bayern München, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Atlético Madrid 16th (4 points), Bayern München 14th (5 points).
- Form in the competition: Atlético Madrid 1W 1D 1L (4:3), Bayern München 1W 2D 0L (10:5).
- H2H: 6 matches: Atlético Madrid 2W 1D 3L, goals 4–8.
- Absences: Atlético Madrid 3, Bayern München 6.
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: injuries, suspensions, absences
Atlético Madrid
- M. Hjulmandred card · will miss the match
- J. Cardosothigh injury · doubtful
- Kokemuscle injury · doubtful
Bayern München
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- S. Gnabrymuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Saibariinjury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · doubtful
- M. Oliseinjury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2-0-1 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2-0-1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1-2-0 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0-1-2 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Atlético Madrid
Home and away
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Atlético Madrid: 16th, 4 points from 3 matches (1W 1D 1L). Bayern München: 14th, 5 points (1W 2D 0L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Atlético Madrid 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded, Bayern München 3.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Atlético Madrid: 1W 1D 1L, goals 4–3; Bayern München: 1W 2D 0L, goals 10–5.
- Head to head. Head to head over 6 meetings: Atlético Madrid 2 wins, Bayern München 3 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 4–8.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–2, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (9.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.47), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 67% and over 2.5 goals is 66%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 6; Atlético Madrid 2 wins, 1 draw, Bayern München 3 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.0 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Atlético Madrid 4–3, Bayern München 10–5.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 66%.
- Not available: Atlético Madrid 3, Bayern München 6.
Alternative tip: Draw or Bayern München (X2)
Other option: Draw or Bayern München (X2) (probability 63%, odds up to 1.55). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Atlético Madrid: M. Hjulmand, J. Cardoso, Koke. Not available for Bayern München: L. Diaz, S. Gnabry, J. Musiala, I. Saibari, M. Neuer, M. Olise. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Atlético MadridDWLBayern MünchenDDWAtlético Madrid vs Bayern München: head to head
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Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München?
On the result, our pick is Draw or Bayern München (X2) (1.55); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.47). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Bayern München (X2).
Who will win Atlético Madrid vs Bayern München?
As we see it: Atlético Madrid to win 37%, the draw 25%, Bayern München to win 39%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
3 November 2026, 20:00, at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid. Referee: François Letexier.
Who will be missing?
Atlético Madrid: M. Hjulmand, J. Cardoso, Koke. Bayern München: L. Diaz, S. Gnabry, J. Musiala, I. Saibari, M. Neuer, M. Olise. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 66% chance (odds 1.47), against 34% for under 2.5 (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 67% (odds 1.40).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (9.8%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.1%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.