Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 6–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Bayern München entertain RB Leipzig on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at Allianz Arena (Munich), with Tobias Stieler, Germany the man in the middle. Bayern München (79%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.24 | 8.50 | 12.40 |
| Market average | 1.21 | 7.84 | 11.26 |
| Lowest odds | 1.17 | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.03 | 1.03 | 94.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 7.00 | 6.31 | 14.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 71.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.98 | 31.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 17/10/26, 14:38. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Bayern München 3–1 RB Leipzig, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayern München 1st (18 points), RB Leipzig 4th (15 points).
- Absences: Bayern München 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: injuries, suspensions, absences
Bayern München
- No reported absences
RB Leipzig
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
Bayern München
Home and away
Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Bayern München: 1st, 18 points from 8 matches (5W 3D 0L). RB Leipzig: 4th, 15 points (5W 0D 3L).
What to expect
We make Bayern München the favourites. The projected scoreline is 3–1, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 3–1 (7.7%). We expect goals and an open game.
The result only pays 1.24, so the goals markets are an option too: At least one team fails to score (odds 3.00), with a probability of 31% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 69% and over 2.5 goals is 85%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 85%.
- Not available: Bayern München 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: no
Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 31%, odds up to 3.00). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Bayern München: no absences. Not available for RB Leipzig: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
On the result, our pick is Bayern München to win (1.24); on goals, At least one team fails to score (3.00). Prefer less risk? Go for Bayern München or draw (1X).
Who will win Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
As we see it: Bayern München to win 79%, the draw 12%, RB Leipzig to win 9%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
17 October 2026, 17:30, at Allianz Arena, Munich. Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany.
Who will be missing?
Bayern München: no absences. RB Leipzig: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 85% chance (odds 1.12), against 15% for under 2.5 (odds 7.00).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 69% (odds 1.36).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 3–1 (7.7%), 4–1 (6.8%), 2–1 (6.6%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
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18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.