Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alverca entertain Arouca on 24 October 2026 · 18:00 at FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo), with P. Ramalho the man in the middle. Alverca (46%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Alverca vs Arouca: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.13 | 3.45 | 3.97 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.31 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.18 | 3.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.91 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.22 | 29.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.70 | 54.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.05 | 45.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 24/10/26, 14:24. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Alverca 1–1 Arouca, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alverca 10th (11 points), Arouca 5th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Alverca 3W 2D 3L (13:12), Arouca 4W 2D 2L (11:7).
- H2H: 3 matches: Alverca 1W 0D 2L, goals 2–3.
- Absences: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Alverca vs Arouca: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Alverca vs Arouca: injuries, suspensions, absences
Alverca
- No reported absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Alverca vs Arouca: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7-1-1 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4-2-3 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3-2-4 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2-2-5 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Alverca
Home and away
Alverca vs Arouca: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Alverca: 10th, 11 points from 9 matches (3W 2D 4L). Arouca: 5th, 20 points (6W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Alverca 1.6 scored and 1.5 conceded, Arouca 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alverca: 3W 2D 3L, goals 13–12; Arouca: 4W 2D 2L, goals 11–7.
- Head to head. Head to head over 3 meetings: Alverca 1 win, Arouca 2 wins, plus 0 draws; goals 2–3.
What to expect
We make Alverca the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (12.3%). We see a fairly level contest.
The two signals clash: on table position the Arouca look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the home side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.75), with a probability of 55% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 55% and over 2.5 goals is 50%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 3; Alverca 1 win, 0 draws, Arouca 2 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 1.7 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Alverca 13–12, Arouca 11–7.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 50%.
- Not available: Alverca 0, Arouca 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 55%, odds up to 1.75). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Alverca: no absences. Not available for Arouca: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Alverca vs Arouca: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
AlvercaLWWWLAroucaWWWDLAlverca vs Arouca: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Alverca vs Arouca: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Alverca vs Arouca?
On the result, our pick is Alverca to win (2.13); on goals, Both teams to score (1.75). Prefer less risk? Go for Alverca or draw (1X).
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
As we see it: Alverca to win 46%, the draw 28%, Arouca to win 26%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
24 October 2026, 18:00, at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo. Referee: P. Ramalho.
Who will be missing?
Alverca: no absences. Arouca: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 50% chance (odds 1.95), against 50% for under 2.5 (odds 1.93).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 55% (odds 1.75).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (9.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.