Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Arouca and Nacional meet on 1 November 2026 · 15:30 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Aruca), under referee Luís Miguel Branco Godinho. Arouca (59%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Arouca vs Nacional: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.71 | 4.24 | 5.78 |
| Market average | 1.59 | 3.99 | 5.39 |
| Lowest odds | 1.53 | 3.46 | 4.29 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 1.25 | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 1.84 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.96 | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.10 | 3.04 | 30.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.87 | 1.82 | 50.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.1% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 1/11/26, 13:45. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Arouca 1–0 Nacional, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Arouca 5th (20 points), Nacional 15th (7 points).
- Form in the competition: Arouca 5W 2D 2L (12:7), Nacional 2W 1D 6L (10:18).
- H2H: 14 matches: Arouca 7W 5D 2L, goals 23–14.
- Absences: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Arouca vs Nacional: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Arouca vs Nacional: injuries, suspensions, absences
Arouca
- No reported absences
Nacional
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7-1-1 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4-2-3 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 9 | 3-2-4 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2-2-5 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Arouca
Home and away
Arouca vs Nacional: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Arouca: 5th, 20 points from 10 matches (6W 2D 2L). Nacional: 15th, 7 points (2W 1D 7L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Arouca 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded, Nacional 1.1 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Arouca: 5W 2D 2L, goals 12–7; Nacional: 2W 1D 6L, goals 10–18.
- Head to head. Head to head over 14 meetings: Arouca 7 wins, Nacional 2 wins, plus 5 draws; goals 23–14.
What to expect
We make Arouca the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–0 (11.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.90), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 51% and over 2.5 goals is 52%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 14; Arouca 7 wins, 5 draws, Nacional 2 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.6 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Arouca 12–7, Nacional 10–18.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Not available: Arouca 0, Nacional 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 51%, odds up to 1.87). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Arouca: no absences. Not available for Nacional: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Arouca vs Nacional: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
AroucaWWWDLNacionalLWLLLArouca vs Nacional: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Arouca vs Nacional: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Arouca vs Nacional?
On the result, our pick is Arouca to win (1.71); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.90). Prefer less risk? Go for Arouca or draw (1X).
Who will win Arouca vs Nacional?
As we see it: Arouca to win 59%, the draw 24%, Nacional to win 18%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
1 November 2026, 15:30, at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Aruca. Referee: Luís Miguel Branco Godinho.
Who will be missing?
Arouca: no absences. Nacional: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 52% chance (odds 1.90), against 48% for under 2.5 (odds 2.04).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 51% (odds 1.87).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–0 (11.8%), 2–0 (10.9%), 1–1 (10.6%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.