Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Alavés and Málaga meet on 23 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estadio de Mendizorroza (Victoria-Gasteiz), under referee Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain. Alavés (59%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Alavés vs Málaga: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.69 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.63 | 3.81 | 5.96 |
| Lowest odds | 1.57 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 1.33 | 70.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.05 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.51 | 26.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 2.10 | 2.01 | 46.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.80 | 1.74 | 53.7% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 23/10/26, 18:08. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Alavés 1–0 Málaga, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Alavés 10th (12 points), Málaga 20th (5 points).
- Form in the competition: Alavés 3W 2D 4L (13:10), Málaga 0W 4D 5L (6:18).
- H2H: 7 matches: Alavés 4W 2D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Absences: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Alavés vs Málaga: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Alavés vs Málaga: injuries, suspensions, absences
Alavés
- F. Garcessuspended · will miss the match
- M. Rodriguezankle injury · will miss the match
Málaga
- J. Cruzmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Lobeteknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Martinezfoot injury · will miss the match
- J. Munozcalf injury · will miss the match
- D. Murilloknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Ochoaknee injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Alavés vs Málaga: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 12 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 2-5-3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Alavés
Home and away
Alavés vs Málaga: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Alavés: 10th, 12 points from 11 matches (3W 3D 5L). Málaga: 20th, 5 points (0W 5D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Alavés 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded, Málaga 0.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Alavés: 3W 2D 4L, goals 13–10; Málaga: 0W 4D 5L, goals 6–18.
- Head to head. Head to head over 7 meetings: Alavés 4 wins, Málaga 1 win, plus 2 draws; goals 10–5.
What to expect
We make Alavés the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–0 (14.0%). We see a fairly level contest.
On goals we like At least one team fails to score (odds 1.80), with a probability of 54% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 46% and over 2.5 goals is 46%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 7; Alavés 4 wins, 2 draws, Málaga 1 win.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.1 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Alavés 13–10, Málaga 6–18.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 46%.
- Not available: Alavés 2, Málaga 6.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: no
Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 54%, odds up to 1.80). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Not available for Málaga: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Alavés vs Málaga: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
AlavésLDLLDMálagaLDLDLAlavés vs Málaga: head to head
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Alavés vs Málaga: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Alavés vs Málaga?
On the result, our pick is Alavés to win (1.69); on goals, At least one team fails to score (1.80). Prefer less risk? Go for Alavés or draw (1X).
Who will win Alavés vs Málaga?
As we see it: Alavés to win 59%, the draw 25%, Málaga to win 16%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
23 October 2026, 20:00, at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz. Referee: Carlos Muñiz Muñoz, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Alavés: F. Garces, M. Rodriguez. Málaga: J. Cruz, J. Lobete, P. Martinez, J. Munoz, D. Murillo, A. Ochoa. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 46% chance (odds 2.10), against 54% for under 2.5 (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 46% (odds 2.10).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–0 (14.0%), 2–0 (11.9%), 1–1 (11.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.