Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 5–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Vitória SC entertain Marítimo on 23 October 2026 · 20:45 at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães), with D. Rosa the man in the middle. Vitória SC (63%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.56 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.18 | 6.45 |
| Lowest odds | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 1.26 | 74.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.84 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.95 | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.32 | 3.05 | 30.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 48.9% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.1% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 23/10/26, 18:18. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Vitória SC 1–0 Marítimo, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Vitória SC 13th (8 points), Marítimo 14th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Vitória SC 1W 2D 5L (5:10), Marítimo 2W 2D 4L (9:14).
- H2H: 27 matches: Vitória SC 15W 4D 8L, goals 34–26.
- Absences: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: injuries, suspensions, absences
Vitória SC
- No reported absences
Marítimo
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10-0-0 | 25:4 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7-1-1 | 26:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 10 | 6-3-1 | 23:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 10 | 6-3-1 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 10 | 6-2-2 | 13:7 | 20 |
| 6 |  Académico Viseu | 10 | 6-2-2 | 15:12 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4-2-3 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4-2-4 | 12:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 10 | 4-2-4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 9 | 3-2-4 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicão | 10 | 2-4-4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2-4-4 | 15:19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2-2-5 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 14 | Marítimo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 9:21 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 10 | 2-1-7 | 10:19 | 7 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2-1-7 | 9:23 | 7 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 10 | 2-1-7 | 5:19 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0-2-8 | 5:19 | 2 |
Recent matches
Vitória SC
Home and away
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Vitória SC: 13th, 8 points from 9 matches (2W 2D 5L). Marítimo: 14th, 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Vitória SC 0.6 scored and 1.3 conceded, Marítimo 1.1 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Vitória SC: 1W 2D 5L, goals 5–10; Marítimo: 2W 2D 4L, goals 9–14.
- Head to head. Head to head over 27 meetings: Vitória SC 15 wins, Marítimo 8 wins, plus 4 draws; goals 34–26.
What to expect
We make Vitória SC the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–0 (12.8%). We see a fairly level contest.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.92), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 49% and over 2.5 goals is 52%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 27; Vitória SC 15 wins, 4 draws, Marítimo 8 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.2 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Vitória SC 5–10, Marítimo 9–14.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 52%.
- Not available: Vitória SC 0, Marítimo 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: no
Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 51%, odds up to 1.87). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Vitória SC: no absences. Not available for Marítimo: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Vitória SCWLDLDMarítimoLLLDLVitória SC vs Marítimo: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Vitória SC vs Marítimo: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
On the result, our pick is Vitória SC to win (1.56); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.92). Prefer less risk? Go for Vitória SC or draw (1X).
Who will win Vitória SC vs Marítimo?
As we see it: Vitória SC to win 63%, the draw 23%, Marítimo to win 15%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
23 October 2026, 20:45, at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães. Referee: D. Rosa.
Who will be missing?
Vitória SC: no absences. Marítimo: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 52% chance (odds 1.92), against 48% for under 2.5 (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–0 (12.8%), 2–0 (12.1%), 1–1 (10.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.