Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Groningen entertain Sparta Rotterdam on 1 November 2026 · 15:45 at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion (Groningen), with Martijn Vos the man in the middle. Groningen (54%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.80 | 4.38 | 4.29 |
| Market average | 1.74 | 4.13 | 4.04 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.68 | 3.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.42 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.89 | 2.76 | 33.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.08 | 45.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.64 | 35.0% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 1/11/26, 13:02. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.4%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Groningen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Groningen 8th (15 points), Sparta Rotterdam 11th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Groningen 4W 3D 3L (24:21), Sparta Rotterdam 2W 3D 5L (17:24).
- H2H: 17 matches: Groningen 5W 3D 9L, goals 22–30.
- Absences: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: injuries, suspensions, absences
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Sparta Rotterdam
- S. Mitoinjury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Groningen
Home and away
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Groningen: 8th, 15 points from 11 matches (4W 3D 4L). Sparta Rotterdam: 11th, 12 points (3W 3D 5L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Groningen 2.4 scored and 2.1 conceded, Sparta Rotterdam 1.7 scored and 2.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Groningen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 24–21; Sparta Rotterdam: 2W 3D 5L, goals 17–24.
- Head to head. Head to head over 17 meetings: Groningen 5 wins, Sparta Rotterdam 9 wins, plus 3 draws; goals 22–30.
What to expect
We make Groningen the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.6%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 65% and over 2.5 goals is 66%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 17; Groningen 5 wins, 3 draws, Sparta Rotterdam 9 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.1 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Groningen 24–21, Sparta Rotterdam 17–24.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 66%.
- Not available: Groningen 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Other option: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, odds up to 1.79). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Not available for Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
GroningenLDLWWSparta RotterdamWLWDLGroningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: head to head
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Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
On the result, our pick is Groningen to win (1.80); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.45). Prefer less risk? Go for Groningen or draw (1X).
Who will win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
As we see it: Groningen to win 54%, the draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam to win 23%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
1 November 2026, 15:45, at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen. Referee: Martijn Vos.
Who will be missing?
Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Sparta Rotterdam: S. Mito. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 66% chance (odds 1.45), against 34% for under 2.5 (odds 2.89).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 65% (odds 1.45).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.6%), 1–1 (9.3%), 2–0 (7.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.