Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain and Lyon meet on 26 October 2026 · 19:30 at Parc des Princes (Paris), under referee Jérôme Brisard. Paris Saint Germain (72%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.36 | 6.09 | 9.00 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 5.75 | 8.36 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.00 | 7.34 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 69.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.29 | 3.13 | 30.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 1.90 | 50.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.58 | 59.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.27 | 41.0% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 26/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.2%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Lyon, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Paris Saint Germain 1st (20 points), Lyon 3rd (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Paris Saint Germain 4W 2D 1L (14:9), Lyon 4W 2D 1L (13:5).
- H2H: 42 matches: Paris Saint Germain 28W 6D 8L, goals 90–43.
- Absences: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: injuries, suspensions, absences
Paris Saint Germain
- O. Dembelethigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Kvaratskheliaknee injury · will miss the match
- Marquinhosthigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Mendesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Longoniinjury · doubtful
Lyon
- S. Kangoconcussion · will miss the match
- K. Nakamurared card · will miss the match
- L. Opendaabsence · will miss the match
- M. Ouedraogoknee injury · will miss the match
- P. Sulcknee injury · will miss the match
- N. Tagliaficomuscle injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 8 | 3-3-2 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 13 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 14 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Paris Saint Germain
Home and away
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Paris Saint Germain: 1st, 20 points from 9 matches (6W 2D 1L). Lyon: 3rd, 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Paris Saint Germain 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded, Lyon 1.9 scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Paris Saint Germain: 4W 2D 1L, goals 14–9; Lyon: 4W 2D 1L, goals 13–5.
- Head to head. Head to head over 42 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 28 wins, Lyon 8 wins, plus 6 draws; goals 90–43.
What to expect
We make Paris Saint Germain the favourites. The projected scoreline is 3–1, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.2%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.62), with a probability of 59% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 59% and over 2.5 goals is 70%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 42; Paris Saint Germain 28 wins, 6 draws, Lyon 8 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.2 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Paris Saint Germain 14–9, Lyon 13–5.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 70%.
- Not available: Paris Saint Germain 5, Lyon 6.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 59%, odds up to 1.62). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Not available for Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Paris Saint GermainWWWWWLyonWLWLWParis Saint Germain vs Lyon: head to head
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Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
On the result, our pick is Paris Saint Germain to win (1.36); on goals, Both teams to score (1.62). Prefer less risk? Go for Paris Saint Germain or draw (1X).
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
As we see it: Paris Saint Germain to win 72%, the draw 17%, Lyon to win 11%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
26 October 2026, 19:30, at Parc des Princes, Paris. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Who will be missing?
Paris Saint Germain: O. Dembele, K. Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, N. Mendes, A. Longoni. Lyon: S. Kango, K. Nakamura, L. Openda, M. Ouedraogo, P. Sulc, N. Tagliafico. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 70% chance (odds 1.37), against 30% for under 2.5 (odds 3.29).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 59% (odds 1.62).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (9.2%), 3–1 (8.0%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.