Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen v Groningen takes place on 25 October 2026 · 13:30 at Stadion de Goffert (Nijmegen); Martin Van den Kerkhof will referee. We back NEC Nijmegen (46%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.10 | 4.10 | 3.31 |
| Market average | 2.06 | 3.94 | 3.17 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.39 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.35 | 68.6% |
| BTTS – no | 3.00 | 2.95 | 31.4% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 25/10/26, 12:59. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.6%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Groningen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points), Groningen 8th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: NEC Nijmegen 2W 4D 3L (15:16), Groningen 4W 2D 3L (22:19).
- H2H: 24 matches: NEC Nijmegen 10W 7D 7L, goals 47–39.
- Absences: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: injuries, suspensions, absences
NEC Nijmegen
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · doubtful
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Groningen
- M. Jengabsence · will miss the match
- T. Mercerainjury · will miss the match
- E. van der Laaninjury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
NEC Nijmegen
Home and away
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. NEC Nijmegen: 13th, 11 points from 11 matches (2W 5D 4L). Groningen: 8th, 15 points (4W 3D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: NEC Nijmegen 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded, Groningen 2.4 scored and 2.1 conceded.
- Form in the competition. NEC Nijmegen: 2W 4D 3L, goals 15–16; Groningen: 4W 2D 3L, goals 22–19.
- Head to head. Head to head over 24 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 10 wins, Groningen 7 wins, plus 7 draws; goals 47–39.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–2, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (9.3%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Groningen look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the home side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.88), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 69% and over 2.5 goals is 67%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 24; NEC Nijmegen 10 wins, 7 draws, Groningen 7 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.6 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: NEC Nijmegen 15–16, Groningen 22–19.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 67%.
- Not available: NEC Nijmegen 5, Groningen 3.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Other option: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, odds up to 2.05). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Not available for Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
NEC NijmegenLDDDDGroningenLDLWWNEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: head to head
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NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
On the result, our pick is NEC Nijmegen to win (2.10); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.88). Prefer less risk? Go for NEC Nijmegen or draw (1X).
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
As we see it: NEC Nijmegen to win 46%, the draw 24%, Groningen to win 30%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
25 October 2026, 13:30, at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof.
Who will be missing?
NEC Nijmegen: B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, E. Mor, Y. Moslih. Groningen: M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 67% chance (odds 1.42), against 33% for under 2.5 (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 69% (odds 1.36).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (9.3%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.