Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen entertain NEC Nijmegen on 31 October 2026 · 17:45 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen), with Sander van der Eijk the man in the middle. Heerenveen (45%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.14 | 4.18 | 3.28 |
| Market average | 2.07 | 3.91 | 3.04 |
| Lowest odds | 2.00 | 3.48 | 2.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.09 | 85.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.36 | 69.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.06 | 30.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.05 | 1.92 | 49.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.36 | 1.34 | 69.5% |
| BTTS – no | 3.25 | 3.05 | 30.5% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 31/10/26, 13:04. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), NEC Nijmegen 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Heerenveen 4W 3D 3L (18:13), NEC Nijmegen 2W 5D 3L (17:18).
- H2H: 23 matches: Heerenveen 6W 9D 8L, goals 28–34.
- Absences: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: injuries, suspensions, absences
Heerenveen
- L. Smansnot in the squad · doubtful
NEC Nijmegen
- D. Geigernot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Morgroin injury · will miss the match
- B. Nuytinckankle injury · will miss the match
- P. Sandlerinjury · will miss the match
- D. Tadiccalf injury · will miss the match
- Y. Moslihnot in the squad · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Heerenveen: 7th, 18 points from 11 matches (5W 3D 3L). NEC Nijmegen: 13th, 11 points (2W 5D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Heerenveen 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded, NEC Nijmegen 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Heerenveen: 4W 3D 3L, goals 18–13; NEC Nijmegen: 2W 5D 3L, goals 17–18.
- Head to head. Head to head over 23 meetings: Heerenveen 6 wins, NEC Nijmegen 8 wins, plus 9 draws; goals 28–34.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–2, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (9.0%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.90), with a probability of 51% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 69% and over 2.5 goals is 69%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 23; Heerenveen 6 wins, 9 draws, NEC Nijmegen 8 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.7 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Heerenveen 18–13, NEC Nijmegen 17–18.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 69%.
- Not available: Heerenveen 1, NEC Nijmegen 6.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Other option: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, odds up to 2.05). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Heerenveen: L. Smans. Not available for NEC Nijmegen: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
HeerenveenWWWLWNEC NijmegenLDDDDHeerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: head to head
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Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
On the result, our pick is Heerenveen to win (2.14); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.90). Prefer less risk? Go for Heerenveen or draw (1X).
Who will win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
As we see it: Heerenveen to win 45%, the draw 24%, NEC Nijmegen to win 31%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
31 October 2026, 17:45, at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Sander van der Eijk.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: L. Smans. NEC Nijmegen: D. Geiger, E. Mor, B. Nuytinck, P. Sandler, D. Tadic, Y. Moslih. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 69% chance (odds 1.43), against 31% for under 2.5 (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 69% (odds 1.36).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (9.0%), 2–1 (8.7%), 1–2 (7.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.