Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Heerenveen v Excelsior takes place on 16 October 2026 · 19:00 at Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen); Robin Hensgens, Netherlands will referee. We back Heerenveen (60%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.60 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Market average | 1.56 | 4.44 | 5.20 |
| Lowest odds | 1.54 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.08 | 85.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 1.37 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.94 | 2.86 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.97 | 47.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.43 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.60 | 35.5% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 16/10/26, 17:16. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Heerenveen 7th (18 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Absences: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: injuries, suspensions, absences
Heerenveen
- No reported absences
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Heerenveen
Home and away
Heerenveen vs Excelsior: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Heerenveen: 7th, 18 points from 11 matches (5W 3D 3L). Excelsior: 15th, 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
What to expect
We make Heerenveen the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.6%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.84), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 65% and over 2.5 goals is 68%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Not available: Heerenveen 0, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Other option: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, odds up to 2.08). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Heerenveen: no absences. Not available for Excelsior: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Heerenveen vs Excelsior: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
On the result, our pick is Heerenveen to win (1.60); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.84). Prefer less risk? Go for Heerenveen or draw (1X).
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
As we see it: Heerenveen to win 60%, the draw 21%, Excelsior to win 18%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
16 October 2026, 19:00, at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Referee: Robin Hensgens, Netherlands.
Who will be missing?
Heerenveen: no absences. Excelsior: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 68% chance (odds 1.43), against 32% for under 2.5 (odds 2.94).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 65% (odds 1.44).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.6%), 1–1 (8.6%), 2–0 (8.0%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
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18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.