Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Real Madrid and RB Leipzig meet on 21 October 2026 · 20:00 at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium (Madrid), under referee István Kovács. Real Madrid (78%) are favourites in our book. Scroll on for our tip, the chance of each result, team news and our analysis.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.29 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 7.28 | 10.48 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 6.50 | 9.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.04 | 1.03 | 91.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.14 | 80.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 5.00 | 4.80 | 19.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.44 | 64.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.72 | 34.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 21/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Real Madrid 3–1 RB Leipzig, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Real Madrid 4th (9 points), RB Leipzig 30th (3 points).
- H2H: 5 matches: Real Madrid 3W 1D 1L, goals 10–5.
- Absences: Real Madrid 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: injuries, suspensions, absences
Real Madrid
- No reported absences
RB Leipzig
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3-0-0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3-0-0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3-0-0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2-1-0 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2-0-1 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2-0-1 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2-0-1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2-0-1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1-2-0 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  AS Roma | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atlético Madrid | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1-1-1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1-1-1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1-0-2 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Inter | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1-0-2 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodø/Glimt | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0-1-2 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0-1-2 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Real Madrid
Home and away
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Real Madrid: 4th, 9 points from 3 matches (3W 0D 0L). RB Leipzig: 30th, 3 points (1W 0D 2L).
- Head to head. Head to head over 5 meetings: Real Madrid 3 wins, RB Leipzig 1 win, plus 1 draw; goals 10–5.
What to expect
We make Real Madrid the favourites. The projected scoreline is 3–1, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 3–1 (8.2%). We expect goals and an open game.
The result only pays 1.27, so the goals markets are an option too: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.45), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 66% and over 2.5 goals is 81%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 5; Real Madrid 3 wins, 1 draw, RB Leipzig 1 win.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.0 per match.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 81%.
- Not available: Real Madrid 0, RB Leipzig 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Other option: Under 3.5 goals (probability 35%, odds up to 2.78). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Real Madrid: no absences. Not available for RB Leipzig: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: head to head
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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
On the result, our pick is Real Madrid to win (1.27); on goals, Over 3.5 goals (1.45). Prefer less risk? Go for Real Madrid or draw (1X).
Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
As we see it: Real Madrid to win 78%, the draw 13%, RB Leipzig to win 9%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
21 October 2026, 20:00, at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Referee: István Kovács.
Who will be missing?
Real Madrid: no absences. RB Leipzig: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 81% chance (odds 1.17), against 19% for under 2.5 (odds 5.00).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 66% (odds 1.44).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 3–1 (8.2%), 2–1 (7.6%), 3–0 (7.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.