Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF entertain Aalesund on 25 October 2026 · 16:00 at Sarpsborg Stadion (Sarpsberg), with Mischa Kellerhals the man in the middle. Sarpsborg 08 FF (51%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.86 |
| Market average | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Lowest odds | 1.82 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.37 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.95 | 31.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.04 | 1.93 | 48.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 67.8% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.89 | 32.2% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 25/10/26, 12:04. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.8%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Aalesund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9th (31 points), Aalesund 14th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 7W 7D 9L (28:34), Aalesund 5W 9D 9L (39:51).
- H2H: 12 matches: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9W 1D 2L, goals 27–13.
- Absences: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: injuries, suspensions, absences
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- F. Carstenseninjury · will miss the match
- M. Opokuankle injury · will miss the match
Aalesund
- H. Hammerinjury · will miss the match
- S. Haramabsence · will miss the match
- M. Reedinjury · will miss the match
- P. Auklandinjury · doubtful
- A. Kjelseninjury · doubtful
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 |  Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Home and away
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Sarpsborg 08 FF: 9th, 31 points from 25 matches (8W 7D 10L). Aalesund: 14th, 24 points (5W 9D 11L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded, Aalesund 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sarpsborg 08 FF: 7W 7D 9L, goals 28–34; Aalesund: 5W 9D 9L, goals 39–51.
- Head to head. Head to head over 12 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 wins, Aalesund 2 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 27–13.
What to expect
We make Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.2%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.87), with a probability of 51% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 68% and over 2.5 goals is 68%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 12; Sarpsborg 08 FF 9 wins, 1 draw, Aalesund 2 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.3 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Sarpsborg 08 FF 28–34, Aalesund 39–51.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Not available: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2, Aalesund 5.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Other option: Over 3.5 goals (probability 49%, odds up to 2.04). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Not available for Aalesund: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Sarpsborg 08 FFLWLWLAalesundLLWLWSarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: head to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
On the result, our pick is Sarpsborg 08 FF to win (1.90); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.87). Prefer less risk? Go for Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw (1X).
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Aalesund?
As we see it: Sarpsborg 08 FF to win 51%, the draw 23%, Aalesund to win 26%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
25 October 2026, 16:00, at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsberg. Referee: Mischa Kellerhals.
Who will be missing?
Sarpsborg 08 FF: F. Carstensen, M. Opoku. Aalesund: H. Hammer, S. Haram, M. Reed, P. Aukland, A. Kjelsen. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 68% chance (odds 1.42), against 32% for under 2.5 (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 68% (odds 1.40).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.2%), 1–1 (9.0%), 2–2 (6.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.