Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Real Madrid entertain Sevilla on 18 October 2026 · 20:00 at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium (Madrid), with Mateo Busquets Ferrer the man in the middle. Real Madrid (78%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.27 | 7.21 | 13.00 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 6.84 | 11.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.39 | 1.38 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | 2.93 | 32.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 48.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.87 | 49.7% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 18/10/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.7%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Real Madrid 3rd (27 points), Sevilla 6th (17 points).
- Absences: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: injuries, suspensions, absences
Real Madrid
- No reported absences
Sevilla
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 12 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 2-5-3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Real Madrid
Home and away
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Real Madrid: 3rd, 27 points from 11 matches (9W 0D 2L). Sevilla: 6th, 17 points (5W 2D 4L).
What to expect
We make Real Madrid the favourites. The projected scoreline is 3–1, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–0 (11.0%). We expect goals and an open game.
The result only pays 1.27, so the goals markets are an option too: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.91), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 50% and over 2.5 goals is 68%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 68%.
- Not available: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: no
Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 50%, odds up to 1.91). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Real Madrid: no absences. Not available for Sevilla: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Real Madrid vs Sevilla: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
On the result, our pick is Real Madrid to win (1.27); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.91). Prefer less risk? Go for Real Madrid or draw (1X).
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
As we see it: Real Madrid to win 78%, the draw 14%, Sevilla to win 8%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
18 October 2026, 20:00, at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer.
Who will be missing?
Real Madrid: no absences. Sevilla: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 68% chance (odds 1.39), against 32% for under 2.5 (odds 3.20).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 50% (odds 1.95).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–0 (11.0%), 3–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (8.8%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.