Liverpool vs Arsenal tip, odds and prediction, 1 November 2026, Premier League

Our forecast for Liverpool vs Arsenal

We suggest staking on the under 2.5 goals market at decimal odds 1.95. Arsenal have allowed just six expected goals and have faced only 24 shots on target in their first eight league outings, protecting five clean sheets. Liverpool, meanwhile, have kept four shut‑outs in six Premier League matches since September.

The rationale focuses on the defensive solidity both clubs have shown rather than the historical tendency of this clash to produce many goals. Liverpool still boast a potent attacking outlet in Alexander Isak, who has hit the net in each of his last six league games. Arsenal’s forward line remains uncertain pending late fitness updates. An early strike or a sending‑off could swiftly tip the balance, so this is a cautious recommendation rather than a high‑certainty pick.

Pick: under 2.5 total goals in regular time – odds 1.95. The wager succeeds if the final tally is 0‑2 goals and loses if three or more are scored. The odds imply a break‑even win‑rate of 51.28 %; we do not claim a precise statistical edge.

Match details – date, kick‑off and venue

Liverpool will host Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday, 1 November 2026. The kick‑off is scheduled for 16:30 local time.

This Premier League fixture pits two top‑table sides against each other. Arsenal sit on 21 points from eight games, while Liverpool have accumulated 15 points from the same number of matches. The league positions alone do not dictate the most attractive betting option.

Available odds and market overview

• Liverpool win: 2.90
• Draw: 3.50
• Arsenal win: 2.33
• Over 2.5 goals: 1.86
• Under 2.5 goals: 1.95
• Arsenal or draw: 1.37

Even though Arsenal are the shortest‑priced side, a low price does not automatically translate into value. A simulation attributes a 41.8 % chance of an Arsenal victory, 32.7 % for Liverpool and 25.5 % for a draw. At odds of 2.33, a win for Arsenal would need roughly 42.9 % probability to break even, indicating the market may be slightly over‑valued.

Other lines that have appeared include total corners over/under 9.5 at 1.83, Liverpool corners over 4.5 at 1.75 or under at 1.90, Arsenal corners over 4.5 at 1.70 or under at 1.95, total cards over 4.5 at 2.00 and under at 1.66, and Isak over 0.5 offsides at 1.95. Without robust matchup‑adjusted probabilities, none of these alternatives surpass the under 2.5 goals market in terms of support.

Recent form of the two clubs

Liverpool have collected victories in their last two league fixtures, beating Brentford 2‑1 away and Brighton 2‑0 at home. Their overall record after eight games stands at four wins, three draws and one loss.

Arsenal have won seven of their opening eight league matches, the latest being a 2‑0 triumph over Everton. Their mid‑week League Cup exit on penalties should be considered separate from their league momentum. The defensive records of both sides provide the primary justification for the under 2.5 goals selection.

Key pre‑match numbers

• Arsenal clean sheets: 5 in 8 league games
• Arsenal expected goals against: 6.2 in 8 matches
• Shots on target faced by Arsenal: 24 in 8 games
• Liverpool clean sheets: 4 in 6 league matches since September
• Alexander Isak goals: 6 in his last 6 league appearances

These statistics highlight recent trends but are not guarantees of future outcomes. The small sample size and varying opponent quality mean they should be treated as supporting evidence rather than definitive proof.

Head‑to‑head overview

In the two league meetings last season only a single goal was recorded – Dominik Szoboszlai’s strike in Liverpool’s home win. This is a stark contrast to the 19 encounters between January 2016 and May 2025, which averaged over four goals per game.

Arsenal have failed to win in their last 13 Premier League trips to Anfield, managing five draws and eight defeats. While this provides context, squad changes, tactical shifts and current defensive form should carry more weight for this particular prediction.

Team news and influential players

Arsenal’s latest briefing left several selections open. The coach noted Bukayo Saka’s gradual improvement but still pending full fitness, and Noni Maduke’s involvement will depend on training outcomes. Declan Rice, Riccardo Calafiori and Christos Tzolis have trained and could feature if they remain fit.

Liverpool updates suggest Dominik Szoboszlai and Victor Muñoz may be available, while Florian Wirtz has returned from an ankle problem. Earlier reports listing them as definite absentees should be revisited in light of newer information.

Isak’s scoring run makes him Liverpool’s most dangerous individual option at present. Arsenal’s defensive organisation is the strongest argument for the under‑2.5‑goals market. Starting line‑ups have not yet been confirmed, so no predicted XI is presented as fact.

Match specifics

• Competition: Premier League
• Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
• Date: Sunday, 1 November 2026
• Kick‑off: 16:30
• Referee: Andy Madley