Latvia vs Armenia tip, odds and prediction, 15 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Latvia vs Armenia prediction and betting preview

Will Armenia continue their recent dominance over Latvia and secure three points in Riga?

League standing and recent form

In the UEFA Nations League Latvia sit in fourth place with a solitary point from five matches (0‑1‑4). Their overall record shows three goals scored and eight conceded, a goal‑difference of ‑5. At home the Latvian side has managed only a draw and a loss, scoring once and letting in two.

Armenia occupy the third spot with five points (1‑2‑2). They have also recorded a negative goal‑difference of ‑1, scoring five and conceding six. Away from home they have yet to taste victory, holding one draw and suffering one loss while failing to find the net.

Both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets. Latvia have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, while Armenia have kept two clean sheets in the same period. The lack of defensive solidity is reflected in the fact that three of Latvia’s last five games featured both teams scoring, and only two of Armenia’s games saw both sides on the scoresheet.

Last five matches – detailed breakdown

Latvia (all competitions)

• 25 Sep 2026 – at Armenia 0‑2 (loss). Latvia failed to score away and conceded two.
• 28 Sep 2026 – vs Cyprus 0‑0 (draw) at home. The only match in the last five where Latvia kept a clean sheet and also failed to score.
• 2 Oct 2026 – vs Montenegro 1‑2 (loss) at home. Both teams scored and the total exceeded 2.5 goals.
• 5 Oct 2026 – at Cyprus 1‑2 (loss). Again a match with both sides scoring and more than 2.5 goals.
• 12 Nov 2026 – at Montenegro 1‑2 (loss). The third consecutive away defeat, with both teams scoring and the total over 2.5.

Across these five fixtures Latvia have recorded 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, scoring three goals while conceding eight. Both teams have scored in three of the matches, and the over‑2.5‑goals line has been hit three times. Latvia have not kept a clean sheet in any of the last five, and have failed to score in two matches.

Armenia (all competitions)

• 25 Sep 2026 – vs Latvia 2‑0 (win) at home. A clean‑sheet victory.
• 28 Sep 2026 – vs Montenegro 2‑3 (loss) at home. A high‑scoring encounter with both sides scoring and over 2.5 goals.
• 2 Oct 2026 – at Cyprus 0‑2 (loss) away. Armenia failed to score and conceded two goals.
• 5 Oct 2026 – at Montenegro 0‑0 (draw) away. The second clean sheet in the last five, but also a match without a goal.
• 12 Nov 2026 – vs Cyprus 1‑1 (draw) at home. Both teams scored and the total was exactly two goals.

In these five games Armenia have secured 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, scoring five goals and conceding six. Both teams have scored in two matches, and the over‑2.5‑goals line was reached only once. Armenia have kept a clean sheet in two games and have failed to score in two matches.

Head‑to‑head record

The last five meetings between the two nations heavily favour Armenia. Out of those encounters, Armenia have won four times and Latvia only once, giving a head‑to‑head tally of 10‑5 in favour of the Armenians.

The individual results are:

• 25 Sep 2026 – Armenia 2‑0 Latvia (home win for Armenia).
• 17 Nov 2024 – Latvia 1‑2 Armenia (away win for Armenia).
• 7 Sep 2024 – Armenia 4‑1 Latvia (home win for Armenia).
• 12 Oct 2023 – Latvia 2‑0 Armenia (away win for Latvia).
• 19 Jun 2023 – Armenia 2‑1 Latvia (home win for Armenia).

Armenia’s dominance is evident not only in the number of victories but also in the goal margin, having scored ten goals to Latvia’s five across the five fixtures.

Team news

No players have been reported absent for either side ahead of the match, meaning both teams will be able to field their strongest available line‑ups.

Bookmakers’ expectations

The betting market assigns the following implied probabilities:

• Latvia win – 32 % (best odds 2.94).
• Draw – 28 % (best odds 3.38).
• Armenia win – 40 % (best odds 2.39).

The bookmaker margin on the match result stands at 5.4 %.

Expected goals are rounded to one per side, indicating an anticipated total of roughly two goals. The most likely exact scores, derived from the market, are:

• 1‑1 – 13.1 % chance.
• 0‑1 – 11.9 % chance.
• 1‑0 – 10.5 % chance.

These percentages reflect the market’s view that a low‑scoring encounter is most probable, with a slight edge to Armenia securing a narrow victory.

Our tip for Latvia vs Armenia: Armenia to win

We back Armenia to take all three points at Skonto.

• Latvia have not won any of their last five matches.
• Armenia sit higher in the table with five points versus Latvia’s single point.
• Armenia have won four of the last five head‑to‑head meetings.
• The market gives Armenia a 40 % implied probability at odds 2.39.

The tip settles as a win for Armenia on the following scorelines: 0‑1, 1‑2 or 0‑2. Any of the alternative outcomes – a 1‑1 draw, a 1‑0 win for Latvia, a 0‑0 draw or a 1‑1 result – would result in a lost stake.

Other betting ideas

No additional recommendations are available for this fixture.

Verdict

All indicators point to Armenia extending their recent superiority over Latvia. Their superior league position, stronger head‑to‑head record and the market’s clear preference combine to make the odds of 2.39 for an Armenian win an attractive proposition. Considering the expected low‑scoring nature of the match, a narrow victory for Armenia appears the most probable outcome.