Slovenia vs Switzerland tip, odds and prediction, 13 November 2026, UEFA Nations League

Slovenia vs Switzerland prediction and betting preview

Slovenia host Switzerland in the UEFA Nations League, Matchweek 5, on 13 November 2026 at 19:45, and we are looking at the goals line first. Our main tip is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.54, a bookmaker chance of 63%. Switzerland are the stronger side on every table we have, and we also like them to win at 1.72, but the total is where we see the better price.

Slovenia at home: a solid start, not a flying one

Slovenia sit second in the table of this competition with 7 points from four matches, two wins, one draw and one defeat, and 5:3 in goals. At home they have won once and drawn once without a defeat, scoring 2 and conceding none. That is a respectable record, but it is not the kind that frightens a side like Switzerland.

Their last four matches in all competitions brought two wins, a draw and a defeat. The 0-0 with Scotland on 26/9/26 and the 2-0 over North Macedonia on 29/9/26 were both at home, and the 1-2 win in Scotland on 6/10/26 came away. The defeat was 2-1 at Switzerland on 3/10/26. Those games are the wider picture, covering all competitions rather than only this table, so we read them as form rather than as a ranking.

Switzerland on the road, and why the numbers look so good

Switzerland are first in the table of this competition with 12 points from four wins out of four, and they have scored 11 goals while conceding one. That works out to 2.8 scored and 0.3 conceded per match. Away from home they have two wins from two, with a 6:0 goal difference in those games.

In all competitions their last four matches were four wins, with 11 goals scored and one conceded. The one caveat is that the table only covers this competition, so a cup or a friendly defeat would not show up there, but none is on the record here.

The meetings and the absences

The last three meetings have gone Switzerland's way twice, with one draw. Slovenia have not won any of them. The most recent was Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia on 3/10/26, and the 0-0 on 13/10/25 is the draw. Across the three games the goals stand at 1:5 in Switzerland's favour, which is a record that makes the away side the natural choice for most readers.

No absences have been reported for either side, so we are judging both teams as they are expected to line up. That leaves the head-to-head record and the form to carry the argument, and both point the same way.

What the odds say and how we read them

The bookmakers give Slovenia a chance of 18% (best odds 5.82), a draw 26% (best odds 3.80) and Switzerland 57% (best odds 1.72). The bookmaker margin on the match result is 7.1%. The expected goals are about 1 for Slovenia and 2 for Switzerland, roughly 3 in total, and the most likely exact scores are 0-1 at 13.5%, 1-1 at 11.5% and 0-2 at 11.2%.

Those figures describe what the bookmakers expect. They are not a count of past matches, and we do not treat them as one.

Our tip for Slovenia vs Switzerland: Under 2.5 goals

Our main tip is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.54, a bookmaker chance of 63%. The under is a 63% shot on the market's own numbers, so this is a lean, not a banker. We still prefer it to the match result, because the goals line rests on Slovenia's defensive habits as much as on Switzerland's attack.

The reasons we back it:

• Slovenia have had more than 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 4 matches.
• Slovenia kept a clean sheet in only 2 of their last 4 matches.
• Switzerland kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches.
• The best odds of 1.54 give the under a bookmaker chance of 63%.

The bet wins on 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 1-0, and loses on 1-2. A 2-1 or a 3-0 would also lose it, so the under is only safe if the match stays at two goals or fewer. We think it does, at least slightly more often than not.

Our other tip: Switzerland to win

Our second tip is Switzerland to win at odds 1.72, a bookmaker chance of 57%. Switzerland have won all four of their matches in this competition and have lost none of their last four in all competitions. They are first in the table with 12 points, while Slovenia are second with 7. Away from home they have two wins from two, and they have taken two of the last three meetings to Slovenia's none.

The bet wins on 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2, and loses on 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0. A 1-0 Slovenia win at home is enough to beat it, which is why we keep the stake modest. We would still take the price.

Other bets we would consider

• Switzerland +0 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.24, a bookmaker chance of 77%. A Switzerland win wins, a draw returns the stake, and only a defeat loses. It is the most cautious way to back the favourite.
• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, a bookmaker chance of 74%. It sits alongside our main tip and asks for less of the match to go right.
• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.39, a bookmaker chance of 70%. A match with two or more goals in total already brings in a return, so it is a useful companion if you want a second bet on the goals.

We would rather keep the card simple than stack it. The under and the Switzerland win pull against each other in the 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-2 scores, so the handicap or the total is the cleaner way to add exposure. Enjoy the match, and bet within your means.