Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard entertain Excelsior on 25 October 2026 · 11:15 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion (Sitard), with Ingmar Oostrom the man in the middle. We do not see a favourite here. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.72 | 3.59 | 2.63 |
| Market average | 2.64 | 3.44 | 2.57 |
| Lowest odds | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 2.09 | 45.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 2.75 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 25/10/26, 09:03. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Excelsior, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Fortuna Sittard 6th (19 points), Excelsior 15th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fortuna Sittard 4W 3D 2L (16:17), Excelsior 3W 2D 4L (16:18).
- H2H: 9 matches: Fortuna Sittard 5W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Absences: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: injuries, suspensions, absences
Fortuna Sittard
- R. Bayramknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Dahlhausnot in the squad · will miss the match
- I. Marquezinjury · will miss the match
- Y. Oukiligroin injury · will miss the match
- R. Guthnot in the squad · doubtful
- M. Ihattareninjury · doubtful
- E. Michutnot in the squad · doubtful
- O. Romenyankle injury · doubtful
- L. Zeefuiknot in the squad · doubtful
Excelsior
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
Fortuna Sittard
Home and away
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Fortuna Sittard: 6th, 19 points from 11 matches (5W 4D 2L). Excelsior: 15th, 11 points (3W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Fortuna Sittard 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded, Excelsior 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Fortuna Sittard: 4W 3D 2L, goals 16–17; Excelsior: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–18.
- Head to head. Head to head over 9 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 5 wins, Excelsior 2 wins, plus 2 draws; goals 16–11.
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 1–1, close to 2 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.7%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Fortuna Sittard look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the away side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), with a probability of 66% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 60% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 9; Fortuna Sittard 5 wins, 2 draws, Excelsior 2 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.0 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Fortuna Sittard 16–17, Excelsior 16–18.
- Projected: close to 2 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Not available: Fortuna Sittard 9, Excelsior 0.
Alternative tip: Draw or Excelsior (X2)
Other option: Draw or Excelsior (X2) (probability 64%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 2 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Not available for Excelsior: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Fortuna SittardDWDDWExcelsiorLLLLDFortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: head to head
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Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
On the result, our pick is Draw or Excelsior (X2) (1.50); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.47). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Excelsior (X2).
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
As we see it: Fortuna Sittard to win 36%, the draw 27%, Excelsior to win 37%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
25 October 2026, 11:15, at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sitard. Referee: Ingmar Oostrom.
Who will be missing?
Fortuna Sittard: R. Bayram, J. Dahlhaus, I. Marquez, Y. Oukili, R. Guth, M. Ihattaren, E. Michut, O. Romeny, L. Zeefuik. Excelsior: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.79), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.15).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (8.5%), 0–1 (8.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.