Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen takes place on 24 October 2026 · 14:30 at MEWA Arena (Mainz); Florian Badstübner will referee. We back FSV Mainz 05 (55%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.80 | 4.34 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.13 | 4.41 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.51 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.61 | 2.50 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.37 | 2.30 | 41.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.51 | 61.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.43 | 38.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 24/10/26, 12:03. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points), Werder Bremen 5th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L (14:10), Werder Bremen 2W 3D 1L (12:12).
- H2H: 31 matches: FSV Mainz 05 11W 7D 13L, goals 45–42.
- Absences: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: injuries, suspensions, absences
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
- R. Zentnerabsence · doubtful
Werder Bremen
- F. Agucalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Alverocalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Musahmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. N'Diayegroin injury · will miss the match
- J. Njinmahthigh injury · will miss the match
- J. Stagemuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Starkmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Toppknee injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
FSV Mainz 05
Home and away
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. FSV Mainz 05: 9th, 10 points from 8 matches (3W 1D 4L). Werder Bremen: 5th, 15 points (4W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: FSV Mainz 05 2.3 scored and 1.7 conceded, Werder Bremen 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 2L, goals 14–10; Werder Bremen: 2W 3D 1L, goals 12–12.
- Head to head. Head to head over 31 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 11 wins, Werder Bremen 13 wins, plus 7 draws; goals 45–42.
What to expect
We make FSV Mainz 05 the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–1 (9.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Werder Bremen look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the home side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), with a probability of 62% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 62% and over 2.5 goals is 62%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 31; FSV Mainz 05 11 wins, 7 draws, Werder Bremen 13 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.8 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: FSV Mainz 05 14–10, Werder Bremen 12–12.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 62%.
- Not available: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 62%, odds up to 1.57). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Not available for Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
FSV Mainz 05LLWLWWerder BremenWWDDWFSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: head to head
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FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
On the result, our pick is FSV Mainz 05 to win (1.80); on goals, Over 2.5 goals (1.57). Prefer less risk? Go for FSV Mainz 05 or draw (1X).
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
As we see it: FSV Mainz 05 to win 55%, the draw 23%, Werder Bremen to win 22%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
24 October 2026, 14:30, at MEWA Arena, Mainz. Referee: Florian Badstübner.
Who will be missing?
FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 62% chance (odds 1.57), against 38% for under 2.5 (odds 2.61).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 62% (odds 1.57).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–1 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.2%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.