Bet with MINO CASINO →Benfica v Lech Poznań takes place on 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz) (Lisbon). We back Benfica (80%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 1.22 | 8.60 | 16.00 |
| Market average | 1.16 | 7.37 | 13.64 |
| Lowest odds | 1.13 | 6.38 | 9.64 |
| Megapari | 1.22 | 7.05 | 14.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.32 | 70.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.92 | 1.82 | 52.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
| BTTS – no | 1.87 | 1.84 | 50.6% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 2/11/26, 03:28. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 7.4%.
Megapari: prices for this match
Partner odds, refreshed 2/11/26, 15:11. A click takes you to this match at Megapari. 18+
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Benfica 2–0 Lech Poznań, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 1st (9 points), Lech Poznań 32nd (1 point).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (29:8), Lech Poznań 3W 2D 2L (16:11).
- H2H: 2 matches: Benfica 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Absences: Benfica 0, Lech Poznań 0.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: injuries, suspensions, absences
Benfica
- No reported absences
Lech Poznań
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Benfica: 1st, 9 points from 3 matches (3W 0D 0L). Lech Poznań: 32nd, 1 point (0W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Benfica 3.2 scored and 0.9 conceded, Lech Poznań 2.3 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Benfica: 7W 1D 1L, goals 29–8; Lech Poznań: 3W 2D 2L, goals 16–11.
- Head to head. Head to head over 2 meetings: Benfica 2 wins, Lech Poznań 0 wins, plus 0 draws; goals 8–2.
What to expect
We make Benfica the favourites. The projected scoreline is 3–1, close to 4 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 2–0 (10.4%). We expect goals and an open game.
The result only pays 1.22, so the goals markets are an option too: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.92), with a probability of 52% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 49% and over 2.5 goals is 71%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 2; Benfica 2 wins, 0 draws, Lech Poznań 0 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 5.0 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Benfica 29–8, Lech Poznań 16–11.
- Projected: close to 4 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 71%.
- Not available: Benfica 0, Lech Poznań 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: no
Other option: Both teams score: no (probability 51%, odds up to 1.87). We project close to 4 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Benfica: no absences. Not available for Lech Poznań: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
BenficaWWWLech PoznańDLLBenfica vs Lech Poznań: head to head
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Benfica vs Lech Poznań: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
On the result, our pick is Benfica to win (1.22); on goals, Over 3.5 goals (1.92). Prefer less risk? Go for Benfica or draw (1X).
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
As we see it: Benfica to win 80%, the draw 13%, Lech Poznań to win 7%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
5 November 2026, 20:00, at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisbon.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: no absences. Lech Poznań: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 71% chance (odds 1.37), against 29% for under 2.5 (odds 3.40).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 49% (odds 1.95).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 2–0 (10.4%), 3–0 (10.0%), 2–1 (8.3%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.