Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lech Poznań v Sunderland takes place on 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Miejski (Poznan); Balázs Berke will referee. We back Sunderland (51%) as favourites. Further down: the tip, the probability of each result, absences and our view of the game.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 4.29 | 3.90 | 1.90 |
| Market average | 4.05 | 3.76 | 1.84 |
| Lowest odds | 3.80 | 3.45 | 1.60 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.82 | 1.72 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.13 | 44.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.83 | 2.72 | 34.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.63 | 57.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 42.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 22/10/26, 16:29. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 6.0%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Lech Poznań 1–1 Sunderland, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lech Poznań 32nd (1 point), Sunderland 9th (7 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Lech Poznań 0W 1D 0L, goals 1–1.
- Absences: Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 0.
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: injuries, suspensions, absences
Lech Poznań
- No reported absences
Sunderland
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 4 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3-0-0 | 4:1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Rennes | 3 | 1-2-0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Lech Poznań
Home and away
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Lech Poznań: 32nd, 1 point from 3 matches (0W 1D 2L). Sunderland: 9th, 7 points (2W 1D 0L).
- Head to head. Head to head over 1 meetings: Lech Poznań 0 wins, Sunderland 0 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 1–1.
What to expect
We make Sunderland the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.1%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), with a probability of 65% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 57% and over 2.5 goals is 55%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 1; Lech Poznań 0 wins, 1 draw, Sunderland 0 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.0 per match.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 55%.
- Not available: Lech Poznań 0, Sunderland 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 57%, odds up to 1.70). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Lech Poznań: no absences. Not available for Sunderland: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: head to head
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Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
On the result, our pick is Sunderland to win (1.90); on goals, Under 3.5 goals (1.47). Prefer less risk? Go for Draw or Sunderland (X2).
Who will win Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?
As we see it: Lech Poznań to win 23%, the draw 25%, Sunderland to win 51%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
22 October 2026, 17:45, at Stadion Miejski, Poznan. Referee: Balázs Berke.
Who will be missing?
Lech Poznań: no absences. Sunderland: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 55% chance (odds 1.82), against 45% for under 2.5 (odds 2.20).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 57% (odds 1.70).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.1%), 0–1 (10.1%), 1–2 (9.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.