Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Athletic Club entertain Real Sociedad on 1 November 2026 · 20:00 at San Mamés Stadium (Bilbao), with Alejandro Hernández the man in the middle. Athletic Club (47%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.07 | 3.76 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 2.01 | 3.60 | 3.62 |
| Lowest odds | 1.95 | 3.33 | 3.32 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.24 | 75.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 1.79 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 2.05 | 46.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.05 | 2.92 | 32.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.64 | 56.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.15 | 43.3% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 1/11/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.1%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Athletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Athletic Club 7th (15 points), Real Sociedad 5th (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Athletic Club 3W 3D 3L (12:9), Real Sociedad 6W 1D 3L (19:18).
- H2H: 37 matches: Athletic Club 13W 9D 15L, goals 39–43.
- Absences: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Most likely correct scores
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: injuries, suspensions, absences
Athletic Club
- U. Egiluzknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Guruzetaknee injury · will miss the match
- I. Ruiz de Galarretahamstring injury · will miss the match
Real Sociedad
- L. Beitiaankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Odriozolaknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Zakharyanankle injury · will miss the match
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 12 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 10 | 2-5-3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 10 | 3-2-5 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Athletic Club
Home and away
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Athletic Club: 7th, 15 points from 10 matches (4W 3D 3L). Real Sociedad: 5th, 19 points (6W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Athletic Club 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded, Real Sociedad 1.9 scored and 1.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Athletic Club: 3W 3D 3L, goals 12–9; Real Sociedad: 6W 1D 3L, goals 19–18.
- Head to head. Head to head over 37 meetings: Athletic Club 13 wins, Real Sociedad 15 wins, plus 9 draws; goals 39–43.
What to expect
We make Athletic Club the favourites. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.8%). We expect goals and an open game.
The two signals clash: on table position the Real Sociedad look stronger, yet the bookmakers rate the home side a little higher. A game like that is hard to predict, so playing it safer with your bets makes sense.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.70), with a probability of 57% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 57% and over 2.5 goals is 53%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 37; Athletic Club 13 wins, 9 draws, Real Sociedad 15 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 2.2 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Athletic Club 12–9, Real Sociedad 19–18.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 53%.
- Not available: Athletic Club 3, Real Sociedad 3.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 57%, odds up to 1.70). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Not available for Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: the numbers side by side
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
Athletic ClubWWLDDReal SociedadLWWWWAthletic Club vs Real Sociedad: head to head
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Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
On the result, our pick is Athletic Club to win (2.07); on goals, Both teams to score (1.70). Prefer less risk? Go for Athletic Club or draw (1X).
Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
As we see it: Athletic Club to win 47%, the draw 26%, Real Sociedad to win 26%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
1 November 2026, 20:00, at San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao. Referee: Alejandro Hernández.
Who will be missing?
Athletic Club: U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, I. Ruiz de Galarreta. Real Sociedad: L. Beitia, A. Odriozola, A. Zakharyan. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 53% chance (odds 1.84), against 47% for under 2.5 (odds 2.12).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 57% (odds 1.70).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–0 (10.2%), 2–1 (9.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.