Bet with Mino Casino →Our tip for Portugalete vs Real Unión (Copa del Rey, 18 November 2026, 18:00): Portugalete or draw (1X) at odds of 1.57. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73. The bookmakers' odds give Portugalete 30%, the draw 30% and Real Unión 39%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Portugalete vs Real Unión prediction and betting preview
Portugalete welcome Real Unión to La Florida on 18 November 2026 at 18:00 for a Copa del Rey round 128 tie. Betting markets favour the away side in the result market, yet the hosts have gone unbeaten across their previous five outings in every competition, and we see that record as the key to who takes this one.
Main facts
- Likely result: Portugalete 1–1 Real Unión, roughly 2 goals in total.
- H2H: 3 matches: Portugalete 1W 1D 1L, goals 4–3.
- Absences: Portugalete 0, Real Unión 0.
Where the prices point at La Florida
Odds makers see Real Unión as the favourite. Their implied probability sits at 40%, with the best price available at 2.35. Portugalete come in at 30% with a best price of 3.20, while a draw is priced at 29% with a best price of 3.30. The overround across the three-way market is 8.1%, so the figures reflect how the books have positioned the game rather than a firm judgement on either team.
Who will win Portugalete vs Real Unión?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
How have the two sides been playing?
In their last five matches across all competitions, Portugalete picked up two wins and three draws without losing once, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Both victories came on the road, 2-1 at Amorebieta and 3-0 at Ourense CF, while their home fixtures finished 0-0 against Eibar II and 3-3 against Arosa. Real Unión, over the same span, have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, and their record stands at 6 scored and 8 conceded. Their sole victory was a 4-1 home win over Lugo, and most recently they fell 2-0 at Barakaldo. They found the net in only two of those five games, and that is the statistic a visiting side should worry about most.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: last matches of both teams
Portugalete
Real Unión
Head to head
What do the three previous meetings show?
Head-to-head is evenly matched: each side has one win, and the other meeting ended level. Portugalete have netted four times against Real Unión's three. The most recent clash, a 1-1 stalemate at Real Unión on 9 August 2025, is where we'd begin, since both teams found the net. Earlier, Portugalete beat Real Unión 2-0 on 21 March 2021, and Real Unión took a 2-1 win on 20 December 2020. With only three matches on record, this history serves as a sanity check on our prices rather than the foundation of the tip.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: injuries, suspensions, absences
Portugalete
- No reported absences
Real Unión
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Is anyone missing for either side?
Which bet are we backing?
Portugalete or draw (1X) at odds 1.60 (chance 60%). A draw or home win covers this ticket, so the home side just has to avoid losing, and bookmakers put that scenario at 60% with the best price at 1.60. It pays on 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0, and fails on 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2, which makes a Real Unión victory the one result that really hurts. We build the pick on three factors:
- Portugalete have gone five consecutive matches unbeaten across every competition.
- In all competitions, Real Unión have picked up just one win from their last five outings.
- Bookmakers price the double chance at a 60% probability, with the best available odds at 1.60.
Real Unión at 2.35 to beat this side is a bet we would pass on, since a stalemate on its own is enough to keep Portugalete in the hunt.
Our other tip: Under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.73 (chance 55%). This is our second tip. It cashes on 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0 and 0-2, and fails only on 1-2. Portugalete has managed a shutout in 2 of their last 5 outings, and bookmakers price the under 2.5 at a 55% probability with the best available odds of 1.73. The value looks good to us, but we would back it with a smaller stake than the 1X.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.32 |
| Market average | 3.03 | 3.00 | 2.31 |
| Lowest odds | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.33 | 70.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 2.05 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.73 | 54.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.60 | 25.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.75 | 53.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.03 | 1.99 | 46.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 13/11/26, 09:07. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 9.7%.
Portugalete vs Real Unión: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Score prediction
What additional markets could we consider?
Looking to expand on the two primary selections? Here are the three options we'd weigh, each priced as listed:
- Portugalete +1.25 at 1.23 (chance 78%). Split the stake evenly: one half backs Portugalete +1, the other half backs Portugalete +1.5. Both portions cash in unless the side falls short by a margin of two goals or more, while a single-goal loss refunds the +1 portion.
- Under 3.5 goals at 1.26 (chance 74%). It works well alongside our second tip and loses only if the game produces four or more goals.
- Portugalete +0.5 at 1.60 (chance 59%). Any defeat, even by a single goal, sinks this one, so it offers a plainer route to the same outlook as our top pick.
Our final word on the slip
Oddsmakers lean towards Real Unión, yet Portugalete look set to hold firm on home soil. They have not lost in their last five matches across all competitions, and the head-to-head record is split down the middle. Our lead selection is Portugalete or the draw at 1.60, and under 2.5 goals at 1.73 comes second. For a single selection, the 1X is the one we'd back.
Match odds
Returns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Portugalete vs Real Unión?
Portugalete or draw (1X) (1.57); Under 2.5 goals (1.73).
Who will win Portugalete vs Real Unión?
As we see it: Portugalete to win 30%, the draw 30%, Real Unión to win 39%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
18 November 2026, 18:00, at Estadio La Florida, Portugalete.
Who will be missing?
Portugalete: no absences. Real Unión: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 46% chance (odds 2.05), against 54% for under 2.5 (odds 1.73).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 53% (odds 1.75).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (12.7%), 0–1 (11.1%), 1–0 (9.4%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.