Alcoyano vs Mallorca tip, odds and prediction, 18 November 2026, Copa del Rey

Alcoyano vs Mallorca prediction and betting preview

The data leans towards Mallorca, and the market concurs: bookmakers put the visitors' chance of winning at 60%, with the top price at 1.57 for the Copa del Rey fixture played at El Collao in Alcoy. Expected goals sit at about 1 for Alcoyano and about 2 for Mallorca, which points to a total near three. We back the away side, yet the more interesting question is how many goals this match will actually produce, and that question leads us to our central angle for the 19:00 kick-off on 18 November.

Expected goals point to a Mallorca lead

Our model projects Mallorca to score roughly twice as many goals as Alcoyano, yet the bookmakers price the hosts at only 16% to take the points, and a draw sits at 24%. The best available price on a home win is 6.20, which shows how little the market expects from them on paper. At that figure, we would pass on Alcoyano outright.

Totals are the trickier call here. Sitting at roughly three, the projection lands right in the middle of the 2.5 line, so the figures don't give a firm verdict. Even so, we'd focus on the goal count over the match winner.

Alcoyano's five matches: two wins, two defeats

Across their previous five outings in every competition, Alcoyano collected two victories, a single draw and two losses, scoring six goals while letting in eight. The 3-4 triumph over Castellonense stood out most, yet both setbacks, against Ucam Murcia and Atlético Baleares, came on the road and ended 2-0 each time. Their only result at El Collao during that stretch was a home stalemate with Real Murcia II.

These are the form lines of all competitions, not just this cup, so a league or Copa setback counts the same way as the win at Castellonense. We take from them a side that can score and can also concede quickly, which is not what you want against a team that is favoured on the board.

Mallorca unbeaten, though not free-scoring

Across their previous five outings in every competition, Mallorca have gone unbeaten, picking up two victories and three draws. Their tally reads seven goals scored against four conceded. Stalemates came away at Girona, Eibar and Leganés, while their home wins were over Las Palmas and Cádiz. Mallorca look more difficult to beat than prolific in front of goal.

We read this as a controlled game. The visitors are unbeaten in this run, yet their recent scorelines do not point to a flood of goals. That pattern is what gives the under 2.5 its appeal, and it is also the reason a Mallorca win looks likelier to arrive by a tight score than by a heavy one.

No meetings on record and no team news

Our records show no previous clash between Alcoyano and Mallorca, so we have no head-to-head trend to draw on, and that suits us just fine. Recent results and the current market prices still provide plenty of material to build the read on.

No player on either side has been reported as unavailable.

Our tip for Alcoyano vs Mallorca: Under 2.5 goals

Our top pick is Under 2.5 goals at odds 1.85 (chance 54%). Of the goal lines we checked for this fixture, this one offers the strongest value, and the reasoning that follows is what we stand behind.

• Alcoyano have gone over 2.5 goals in only 1 of their last 5 matches.
• Mallorca have gone over 2.5 goals in only 2 of their last 5 matches.
• At the top available price of 1.85, the under is implied at 54%.

Winning scorelines here are 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 1-1, while 1-2 and 0-3 lose the bet. With a projected total near three goals, nothing is locked in, and a 1-2 result would settle it against us. Even so, the two most probable exact scores following a 0-1 both land on the winning side, and that is the main reason we consider the price fair.

Our other tip: Mallorca to win

Our pick for this fixture is Mallorca to win at odds 1.57 (chance 60%). Going unbeaten in their last 5 outings, Mallorca have shown solid form, and the implied probability sits at 60% with the best available price of 1.57. The margin the bookmaker builds into the 1X2 market is 7.9%, which is why we see no reason to hunt for a higher number on the away side. The wager cashes on 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 and 0-3, and it fails on 1-1 and 0-0.

Our pair of picks diverges on 1-1 and 1-2 scorelines. Should the match finish 0-1 or 0-2, both selections come through. If it ends 1-1, only the under pays out, while a 1-2 result pays the Mallorca selection alone. We favour carrying both picks instead of choosing just one, and we would stop short of stacking a third wager on that same exact score.

Alternatives if you want other angles

• Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.31 (chance 73%). It is the lower-risk option, and it matches an expected total of roughly three goals.
• Alcoyano +2 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 78%). With +2, the wager pays out as long as Alcoyano do not drop a margin of three or more goals, and a loss by exactly two goals gives the stake back.
• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36 (chance 69%). A low-risk way to back some goals without relying on the top end of the scoring range.

Of the options here, the under 3.5 is the bet we feel most sure about. The larger Mallorca handicaps are best avoided, since recent form does not give us enough grounds to back a margin of two goals or more.

Most likely score: 0-1 to Mallorca

Our most probable scoreline is 0-1 to Mallorca, at 13.7%, and it lands both of our tips. A 0-2 result, at 12.0%, would also keep both tips on track, so it is not an unlikely outcome for us. A 1-1 draw at 10.9% would preserve the under bet but miss the Mallorca call, while a 1-2 win would do the opposite. We are backing Mallorca to win.