Bet with MINO CASINO →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Newcastle entertain Aston Villa on 17 October 2026 · 17:30 at St James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne), with Jarred Gillett the man in the middle. We do not see a favourite here. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 2.44 | 3.78 | 2.94 |
| Market average | 2.37 | 3.66 | 2.82 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.15 | 81.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 1.57 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 39.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.44 | 2.35 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.56 | 2.53 | 36.8% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 17/10/26, 13:52. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 4.9%.
Match at a glance
- Likely result: Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Newcastle 12th (11 points), Aston Villa 9th (12 points).
- Absences: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: more betting markets
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
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Most likely correct scores
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: injuries, suspensions, absences
Newcastle
- No reported absences
Aston Villa
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: form and table
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 8 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 8 | 3-2-3 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 13 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 14 |  Everton | 8 | 2-4-2 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Newcastle
Home and away
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Newcastle: 12th, 11 points from 8 matches (3W 2D 3L). Aston Villa: 9th, 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
What to expect
We see a fairly level contest. The projected scoreline is 2–1, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (11.0%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Both teams to score (odds 1.50), with a probability of 63% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 63% and over 2.5 goals is 61%.
Main points of the prediction
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 61%.
- Not available: Newcastle 0, Aston Villa 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 63%, odds up to 1.50). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Newcastle: no absences. Not available for Aston Villa: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa: common questions
Which bet do we recommend for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
On the result, our pick is Newcastle or draw (1X) (1.46); on goals, Both teams to score (1.50). Prefer less risk? Go for Newcastle or draw (1X).
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
As we see it: Newcastle to win 40%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa to win 34%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
17 October 2026, 17:30, at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Newcastle: no absences. Aston Villa: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 61% chance (odds 1.58), against 39% for under 2.5 (odds 2.50).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 63% (odds 1.50).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (8.0%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
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18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.