Bet with Mino Casino →Played: final score 3–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Italy entertain France on 12 November 2026 · 19:45 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), with István Kovács the man in the middle. France (49%) are our favourites. Read on for our tip, the estimated probabilities, missing players and match analysis.
Wins: Italy win, a draw. Half lost (half the stake back): Italy lose by 1. Loses: Italy lose by 2 or more.
Italy vs France: our match analysis
Why this is our tip
- Table. Italy: 1st, 10 points from 5 matches (3W 1D 1L). France: 2nd, 10 points (3W 1D 1L).
- Attack and defence. Goals per game in this competition: Italy 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded, France 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Italy: 2W 1D 1L, goals 8–5; France: 3W 1D 0L, goals 7–2.
- Head to head. Head to head over 6 meetings: Italy 3 wins, France 2 wins, plus 1 draw; goals 11–9.
What to expect
We make France the favourites. The projected scoreline is 1–2, close to 3 goals in the game, and the outcome we rate highest is 1–1 (10.9%). We expect goals and an open game.
On goals we like Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.52), with a probability of 63% by our reckoning. By our numbers, both teams scoring is 60% and over 2.5 goals is 58%.
Main points of the prediction
- Meetings: 6; Italy 3 wins, 1 draw, France 2 wins.
- Average goals in their meetings: 3.3 per match.
- This competition, scored–conceded: Italy 8–5, France 7–2.
- Projected: close to 3 goals; probability of over 2.5 goals 58%.
- Not available: Italy 0, France 0.
Alternative tip: Both teams score: yes
Other option: Both teams score: yes (probability 60%, odds up to 1.57). We project close to 3 goals, which points the same way.
Absences
Not available for Italy: no absences. Not available for France: no absences. Line-ups can still change, so look at the team news again before kick-off.
Italy vs France: odds from several bookmakers
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top odds available | 4.40 | 3.95 | 2.07 |
| Market average | 3.70 | 3.68 | 1.95 |
| Lowest odds | 3.40 | 3.39 | 1.71 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.18 | 79.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.64 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.24 | 42.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 2.54 | 37.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
Our odds combine the prices of several bookmakers and were refreshed 12/11/26, 18:00. Use them for guidance only, since one operator may quote differently. The margin averages 5.8%.
Main facts
- Likely result: Italy 1–1 France, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Italy 1st (10 points), France 2nd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Italy 2W 1D 1L (8:5), France 3W 1D 0L (7:2).
- H2H: 6 matches: Italy 3W 1D 2L, goals 11–9.
- Absences: Italy 0, France 0.
Who will win Italy vs France?
To reach this estimate we remove the margin from several bookmakers' odds. Nothing about the outcome is guaranteed.
Italy vs France: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Whenever the best odds on offer top the fair odds, that price is value. Likely: ≥ 60%; possible: 50–60%; outsider: anything under 50%.
Corners and cards
Score prediction
Italy vs France: injuries, suspensions, absences
Italy
- No reported absences
France
- No reported absences
Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Standings and form
League A – Group A
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 5 | 3-1-1 | 11:6 | 10 |
| 2 | France | 5 | 3-1-1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Belgium | 5 | 3-0-2 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Türkiye | 5 | 0-0-5 | 3:13 | 0 |
Recent matches
Italy
Home and away
Italy vs France: last matches of both teams
Italy
France
Team comparison
Only this season's games feed into these numbers, so treat them with care: the sample is small.
Form in the competition
ItalyWWDWLFranceLWDWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
Which bet do we recommend for Italy vs France?
Italy +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.92); Under 3.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Italy vs France?
As we see it: Italy to win 26%, the draw 26%, France to win 49%.
What is the kick-off time and venue?
12 November 2026, 19:45, at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Referee: István Kovács.
Who will be missing?
Italy: no absences. France: no absences. Absences can still change up to kick-off.
Will the game go over 2.5 goals?
We give over 2.5 goals a 58% chance (odds 1.69), against 42% for under 2.5 (odds 2.30).
Will both teams score?
By our numbers, both sides scoring is 60% (odds 1.57).
What correct score is most probable?
In order: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–1 (8.7%).
Where do your predictions come from?
It all starts with bookmaker odds: we take prices from several firms, remove the margin, average them and convert the result into probabilities. A Poisson model then supplies the expected goals and the most probable scorelines. Form, previous meetings and absences are shown alongside as background. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win.
More predictions
18+ · Betting is never risk-free. We share our predictions to inform you, and they cannot promise that a bet will win. Gamble with care.